A war that is shrinking India’s geopolitical options 

Relevance: Global and Asian Geopolitics, India-China Relations, India-Russia relations 

News: The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is now raging on with no end in sight, and with its long-term implications yet unknown.  

What are the consequences for India? 

India’s initial phase of diplomatic rush is over. Its geopolitical options are shrinking as the war drags on. 

Diminishing options 

Earlier, India’s balancing act propelled it to the centre stage of global attention. Therefore, a number of high-profile visits were seen in India. India had a number of geopolitical options. But, the number of options seems to be limited for at least three reasons:  

One, Russia which is a key strategic partner of India is no longer available to India for balancing purposes. Now, Moscow is more dependent on India today than the other way round. 

Two, By the time the war ends, Asia’s regional balance of power would be shifted in Beijing’s favour. Therefore, India’s challenge of managing China would continue to increase. The Ukraine war has complicated the China conundrum for India.  

Three, today, the focus of the United States and its western partners has shifted from China and the Indo-Pacific to the Ukraine theatre. Further, the war will further weaken the American influence in the Southern Asian region due to preoccupations with the European theatre.  

Others 

In the longer run, a war-fatigued and weakened Russia will become a junior partner to China. 

For New Delhi, instead of how to please both sides in this war, now the bigger question is how manage China which is rapidly consolidating in the region under its influence. 

Today, India’s immediate to medium term engagement with Russia can have a second-order fallout in the medium to long term. 

War is impacting India’s north-western continental strategy towards Afghanistan and Central Asia. Earlier, India withdrew from Afghanistan due to Taliban’s return. This led to decline in India’s strategic interests in Afghanistan. Now, due to war, China’s role into the region will increase, so India’s footprint will be reduced in the Central Asian region. 

Measures taken by India 

The Chinese Foreign Minister’s visit to India is an indication that Beijing also seeks to calm the tempers on the LAC.  

During the Chinese Foreign Minister visit, Indian leaders made it clear that the normalisation of diplomatic and political ties between India and China can happen only after the disengagement of troops from the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).  

The Indian Prime Minister is to attend the BRICS Summit in China. It should leverage the summit. 

India can exploit China-Russia ties. At present, Moscow can nudge Beijing to stop its aggression on the LAC. If China heats up the LAC at present, India would have to turn to the West and the U.S. for political, diplomatic, and intelligence support which would not be in Russian interests.  

It is important that two of its Asian friends China and India do not clash, at least while the war is still on. 

What are the challenges if India exploits Russia-China ties? 

If China stabilises the LAC at the nudging of Russia, it would also expect India to go slow on the Indo-Pacific. 

At present due to the Ukraine war, India cannot utilise the many inherent contradictions between Moscow and Beijing. 

Moscow should understand that the Ukraine war is going to boost Beijing’s attempts to take over its backyard using economic means, which the NATO has been doing to Russia using military means.  

Source: The post is based on an article “A war that is shrinking India’s geopolitical options” published in the “The Hindu” on 17th May 2022.