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According to Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s Second Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2021-22 India’s agriculture sector is all set to create an all-time high production record this year.
What has been the agricultural production trajectory in the last decade?
Food grain production has gone up from 252 million tonnes in 2015-16 to 316 million tonnes now and has risen every single year. Contrast this with the performance in the six years preceding 2016-17 — production fluctuated between 244 and 265 million tonnes.
What are the crops that have seen an increase in production and those that have seen a decline?
Coarse grains such as jowar, bajra and ragi are expected to see a decline in output while maize, rice, Wheat, Pulses are expected to see their output grow.
Oilseeds are expected to see a production growth of 3.3 per cent, due to significant increases in mustard and soybean production. Among the key cash crops, sugarcane is expected to see an increase while cotton production may decline.
What are the implications of this?
Effect on food inflation– Domestic production, the minimum support prices announced by the government as well as the international prices of these commodities influence the prices of these commodities. The effect of the combination of these factors will be seen in the year ahead.
For example, lower production in cotton when prices are already high will raise the raw material costs of the domestic textile industry, weakening its competitiveness.
Although there has been a sustained increase in farm production in India but there is also a rise in farmers’ distress as the terms of trade have worsened.
Source– This post is based on the article “After the Harvest” published in Indian express on 21st Feb 2022.
