An improbable friendship

An improbable friendship

Article

1. Rakesh sood, former diplomat, expresses his views about the recent US-North Korea summit

Important Analysis

2. Author considers this event equivalent to Nixon’s travel to China, 1972 and Reagon and gorbhachov meeting at Reykjavik.
3. In 1994 North Korea threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
4. At that time US addressed the concerns regarding North Korea nuclear program with 1994 Agreed Framework.
5. This Agreed Framework was annulled by Bush administration in 2002 with ‘axis of evil speech’.
6. In 2003 North korea moved out of NPT.
7. Subsequent peace initiative failed (six party talks)
8. In 2006 North Korea conducted its first nuclear test and actively enhanced its nuclear and missile technology capabilities.

• Musudan (around 3,500 km), Hwasong 12 (4,500 km) and Hwasong 14 (around 10,000 km), Hwasong 15(13000km)

9. Consequently, UN imposed sanctions against North Korea.
10. This led to deterioration of relation between US and North Korea.
11. The situation began to change when South Korea invited North korea for winter Olympics which was accepted by latter.
12. Also,North Korea indicated restraint on testing and also willingness to discuss denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula if military threats to North Korea decreased and regime safety was guaranteed.

• The testing restraint was formally declared on April 21, a week before the summit between the two Korean leaders on April 27 in Panmunjom, which was acclaimed a success.

13. In early march US also indicated meeting with North Korea.
14. But Lack of trust and coordination before the meeting led to some wrong signaling which led to collapse of summit.
15. But both the leader further soften their stand and meeting was scheduled on 12^th
16. Joint Statement in Singapore: Outcomes

• Mr. Trump announced suspension of joint military exercises with South Korea.
• North Korea would dismantle a major missile engine testing site.
• There is no sanctions relief yet but given the changing psychological backdrop, it is likely that there may be a loosening by China and Russia.

17. Author also hinted about competitive perspective

• S’s & Japan’s Perspective: Both would ideally like complete, verifiable and irreversible disarmament.
• North Korea’s Perspective: It seeks regime legitimacy and regime security together with sanctions relief while reducing its dependency on China.
• China’s Perspective: It would like to prolong the process to ensure its centrality.
• South Korea’s Perspective: It would like to lower tensions while retaining the American presence.

18. Author opined that Instead of obsessing on the nuclear issue, there should be a clear recognition that a new beginning in U.S.-North Korea relations.

This is possible only by replacing the 1953 Armistice Agreement with a permanent peace treaty.