An itinerary in search of a strategy: on Trump’s East Asia tour

An itinerary in search of a strategy: on Trump’s East Asia tour

Context

• Donald Trump’s statements and Twitter posts through his 12-day visit, five-nation tour of Asia, decodes a new American strategy towards the region that can be challenging.

‘Terrific’ China

• His main aim surrounds around resistance to China’s unrestrained ambitions in ‘freedom of navigation’ and censure of ‘predatory’ economic practices used along with America’s commitment to democracy, human rights, and free trade.
• Mr. Trump’s desire to be friends with the ruler of North Korea, the emerging picture appears confusing, if not bizarre.
• Mr. Trump overview of the “terrific” tour and how he enjoyed the unprecedented reception in Beijing was baffling.
• The cheery on the cake was the business deals — he put the figure at $300 billion and hoped that it would exceed $1 trillion in the coming months, though the actual numbers remain unclear.
• The security partnerships with these Asian partners have also been enhanced.

Words of Trump

“Those days are over,” he declared. He was there “to offer a renewed partnership with America,” the basis of which would be “bilateral trade agreements with any Indo-Pacific nation that wants to be our partner and that will abide by the principles of fair and reciprocal trade… I call it the Indo-Pacific dream.”

What does he mean?

• The U.S. has trade deficits with all the five countries that Mr. Trump visited, putting China, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam in the same basket on this count.
• America offers these countries technology, capital and access to its market.
• America offers a security guarantee and a predictable world order based on multilateral trade and security pacts.
• The rise of China has added additional optimism for neighbouring countries. The friction between China and its neighbours heightened as Beijing’s ambitions grew after the 2008 financial crisis.
• Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, and South Korea started to gravitate more towards the U.S., which was itself alarmed by the assertiveness of China.
• The Obama administration announced the Pivot to Asia strategy in response.
• Barack Obama wanted to open the Asian markets for American companies, but there was a broader blue print issue but Mr. Trump has knocked it down to a one-point agenda: buy our goods and services.
• His statement that countries in the “region [should] be strong, independent, and prosperous, in control of their own destinies, and satellites to no one,” is a call for ending multilateralism which looked as Amercian disinterest.
• Mr. Trump also told his Asian hosts that they were free to pursue their interests solo, as he would pursue his, hinting that America could cut a deal with China on its own, regardless of its potential impact on other countries.
• China is the biggest trading partner of South Korea, Japan and Vietnam. Speaking after Mr. Trump at APEC, Mr. Xi presented a case for multilateralism and open trade. China is also willing to offer technology, capital and market access, on its terms under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Security concerns

• Mr. Trump asked them all to join hands with the U.S. in stopping North Korea’s nuclear adventurism and collaterally asked Japan, Vietnam and South Korea to buy “his weapons”.
• Mr. Trump’s “Indo-Pacific dream” may not appear to be much of a dream for most countries in the region as conflicts in Asia, in the west and the east, could appear to be good opportunities for profit from the realtor’s perspective.