Back to the chessboard?

Back to the chessboard?

Context:

Sri Lanka’s local government election held on February 10 has led to a political crisis in the country, threatening the stability of the present government.

What has happened?

• Sri Lankan President and PM have failed to reach consensus on the future of their coalition government, following the huge defeat their parties suffered in the recent local government elections.
• Mr. Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP) and the Sirisena-led faction of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), its traditional rival, have been in government together since 2015
• In the February 10 local government polls, the partners in national government contested separately and lost to the newly formed party, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), or Sri Lanka People’s Front backed by Mr. Rajapaksa

Background of the Crisis:

• The discord between the President and the Prime Minister has been building up for over a year on a mixture of policy and personal issues.
• The President had alleged that Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and his ministers had been mishandling the economy, and had been even engaged in large-scale corruption while preaching clean governance.
• In the backdrop of the escalating cold war between the two leaders was a major policy failure of the government. A massive financial fraud was committed during the central bank’s bond sales in 2015.
• Much of the blame was put on the Prime Minister by the opposition and the media for allowing it to happen and then attempting a cover-up.
• Amidst a public outcry, Mr. Sirisena had appointed a commission last year to investigate the fraud
• The Commission had recommended the prosecution of the bank’s former Governor, his son-in-law and their accomplices.
• This had further deteriorated the relations between the Prime Minister and the President
• It is this conflict that exploded in February 11 soon after the election results showed the newly formed party, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), or Sri Lanka People’s Front backed by Mr. Rajapaksa winning comfortably.

Dimensions of the Crisis:

There are two dimensions:

1.       The pressure from the Rajapaksa camp for the Wickremesinghe government to resign, interpreting the local government election as a referendum on the government as well as a loss of its popular mandate of 2015.
2.       The government can easily dismiss the pressure. The outcome of the local government election has no direct bearing on the government’s parliamentary majority.Thus, the power within Parliament has not been altered, and it is likely to remain that way unless the ruling coalition breaks up.

Difficulties ahead:

• If the President and Prime Minister do not find a framework of reconciliation between them, governance in Sri Lanka will crawl along for two years
• The programme of constitutional and political reform, peace building, inter-ethnic reconciliation and democratic consolidation will enter an extended state of stalemate.