Covid: How to prepare this time – India & the world must know what variant is causing China’s Covid wave

Source: The post is based on the following articles

“Concerning sequence – India’s vaccination strategy should accommodate for SARS-CoV-2 changes” published in The Hindu on 22^nd November 2022.

“Covid’s China syndrome” published in the Business Standard on 22^nd November 2022.

“Covid: How to prepare this time – India & the world must know what variant is causing China’s Covid wave” published in The Times of India on 22^nd November 2022.

Syllabus: GS – 2 – Issues relating to the development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to health.

Relevance: About Covid surge in China.

News: The recent increase in covid cases reported out of China has triggered global alarm. India’s Health Ministry has instructed states to send positive samples to the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) to check for new, concerning strains.

About the recent Covid surge in China

Despite the reports of crowded mortuaries, hospital admissions are piling up and stocked-out pharmacies. But weekly death counts are officially in the single digits.

Some mathematical modelling projections calculate a million COVID-19 cases in the coming days in China. An American public health scientist predicts that 60% of China and 10% of the world’s population are likely to be infected in the next 90 days.

What are the lessons from the recent Covid surge in China?

1) Long lockdowns cannot eliminate the virus or prevent the development of new strains, 2) The only reasonable defence possible against severe disease is via vaccines. In China, 90% of the population receives a single dose, and half, a second dose. So, the waning immunity is a cause of concern.

Why the recent Covid surge in China is a cause for concern for India?

a) This surge is likely to resonate globally with many more infections, even in India, b) The issue of under-vaccination: Large parts of India’s population is yet to take either the second dose or the third precautionary (booster) dose. For example, less than 17% of young Indians (18-44 years), and less than a quarter of middle-aged Indians (45 -59 years) have taken the third dose.

What should India do to prevent the next covid surge?

India should 1) Constantly gather global intelligence on the patterns of infectivity, immune evasion and virulence of currently circulating variants, 2) Check whether the administered vaccines are still efficacious or not, 3) Resume its free vaccination programme for booster doses, 4) Make basic precautions such as masking and social-distancing norms compulsory again, 5) Keep all systems on alert for a rapid, scaled up public health response when needed

India’s strategy should be a combination of vigilance through clinical and genomic surveillance and scenario-based planning.