Desire for Upward Mobility Declining

Source: The post desire for upward mobility declining has been created, based on the article “Harish Damodaran writes: Why aspiration is dead in India” published in “Indian Express” on 26th October 2024

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS paper3- Economy-growth, development and employment.

Context: The article discusses how people’s desire for social and economic advancement is fading in India. It highlights signs like reduced migration, lower consumer spending, and increased reliance on government aid, indicating a decline in aspirations and optimism about the future.

Why is the Desire for Upward Mobility Declining?

1. Historically, business was limited to certain communities in India, with most people not aspiring to move beyond their family’s traditional work.
   2. But in recent decades, this changed, and many, including slum-dwellers, began hoping for better futures for their children, like becoming doctors or government officials. This shift has stalled recently, as optimism fades.

What Are the Signs of Lower Aspirations?

1. Reduced Migration: Migration to cities is a common indicator of people’s optimism for a better life. Indian Railways’ passenger numbers, often linked to migration, peaked at 8,439 million in 2018-19 but dropped to 6,730 million in 2023-24, showing a decrease in movement for work opportunities.
2. Increased Dependence on Agriculture: From 1993 to 2018, the workforce in agriculture decreased, with workers moving to other sectors. This trend reversed after the pandemic, with agriculture absorbing 46.1% of the labor force in 2023-24, a sign of people staying in traditional roles.
3. Reduced Consumer Spending: Two-wheeler sales, a sign of consumer confidence, peaked at 21.2 million in 2018-19 but only reached 18 million in 2023-24, indicating cautious spending.

What Causes People to Settle for Less?

1. Influence of Free Services and Cash Transfers: Schemes like Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin Yojana provide small monthly payments, which have led some agricultural workers to reduce workdays, as they feel less pressure to earn more.
2. Fewer Aspirations for Higher Living Standards: With rising dependence on government schemes, many people feel satisfied with limited financial support and basic comforts, instead of pursuing higher earnings.

Is India Alone in This Trend?

1. India isn’t alone in experiencing declining aspirations.
2. In China, only 47% of people feel hopeful about their future, down from 73% in 2014.
3. The belief that “hard work pays off” in China dropped from over 60% (2004-2014) to 28.3% in 2023.
4. China’s economy has a $12,600 per capita GDP, allowing some to adopt a “lying flat” attitude.
5. India’s per capita GDP is $2,500, making similar attitudes more challenging for sustainable living.

Question for practice:

Discuss the factors leading to the decline in aspirations for social and economic advancement in India.