Explained: as India strengthens its climate targets, a look at the progress so far, what’s new

Source: The post is based on an article “As India strengthens its climate targets, a look at the progress so far, what’s new” published in the Indian Express on 6^th August 2022.

Syllabus: GS 3 Ecology and Environment

Relevance: India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)

News: Recently, India has updated its Nationally determined commitments (NDC) with incorporation of the two of the five promises, that were made by the Prime Minister at the Glasgow Summit, into official targets, as part of India’s international climate commitments for 2030.

The 2015 Paris Agreement requires every country to set self-determined climate targets, which have to be progressively updated with more ambitious goals every few years.

(1) India’s first Intended Nationally Determined Commitments (INDC) were submitted in 2015. It contained three main targets for 2030:

(a) A 33 to 35 percent reduction in emissions intensity (or emissions per unit of GDP) from 2005 levels

(b) At least 40 percent of total electricity generation to come from non-fossil renewable sources

(c) An increase in forest cover to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent

(2) In 2021, the Prime Minister promised to strengthen India’s climate commitments at the Glasgow meeting. He made 5 promises, and called it the ‘Panchamrit”.

(3) In addition, PM had said that at least 500 GW of India’s installed electricity generation capacity in 2030 would be based on non-fossil fuel sources, and India would also ensure avoided emissions of at least one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between now and 2030.

(4) PM Modi had also announced a net zero target for India for the year 2070. It means India would offset its greenhouse gas emissions entirely, either by absorption of carbon dioxide through natural processes like photosynthesis in plants or through physical removal of greenhouse gases using futuristic technologies. But net-zero is a long-term target and does not qualify to be included in the NDC which seeks five-to-10-year climate targets from countries.

What are the newly updated official targets?

* India will now reduce its emission intensity by at least 45 percent, instead of just 33 to 35 percent, from 2005 levels by 2030.

* Also, it would now ensure that at least 50 percent of its total electricity generation, not just 40 percent, would come from renewable sources by 2030.

What are the reasons for incorporating the two promises incorporated into the new official targets?

India is on its way to achieving its existing INDC targets well ahead of the 2030 timeline stipulated in the climate pact.

(1) India’s emissions intensity was 24% lower than the 2005 levels in the year 2016 itself. It is very likely that the 33 to 35% reduction target has already been achieved, or is very close to being achieved.

(2) The other target of having at least 40% of electricity coming from non-fossil fuels has officially been reached, i.e., 41.5% of India’s current installed electricity capacity of 403 GW is now powered by non-fossil fuels. For example, wind, solar, and others renewables energy alone account for more than 28% of this capacity while hydropower contributes over 11 percent.

Which Glasgow commitments have not been converted into official targets by the government?

(1) India’s non-fossil fuel electricity generation capacity would touch 500 GW in 2030.

(2) India would cut at least one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from its net projected emissions between now and 2030.

What are the reasons for the non-incorporation of the two targets?

(1) It is difficult to achieve the 500 GW non-fossil fuel electricity capacity target for 2030. Of the current installed capacity of 403 GW, over 236 GW, or 58.5% comes from fossil fuel sources, while non-fossil fuels make up only 167 GW.

To add capacity from non-fossil sources, this would have to triple in the next 10 years to reach the 500 GW target. But, the total installed electricity capacity has more than doubled in the last 10 years

(2) The promise to reduce at least one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from the cumulative projected emissions till 2030 is problematic. As per, India’s annual projections, India could be emitting anywhere between 35 and 40 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in total by the year 2030.