Gauging the status quo: 

Gauging the status quo: 

Brief Overview of the article

The article majorly talks about two issues.

1)      BRICS- recent summit, scope etc.

2)      Bilateral meetings between India and China, and India and Russia that took place on the sidelines of the BRICS summit.

3)      The road after Doklam.

BRICS

The Xiamen Declaration– significant exclusions, inconsequential inclusions.

• Absence of any mention Belt and Road Initiative. China, either thinks that BRICS could make no material contribution to BRI, or it did not want to strike a discordant note with India.
• The declaration is inconsequential as the global issues of relevance were absent.
• There was no mention of the recent significant global events like North Korea’s nuclear provocations, US response, other significant events in Afghanistan, west Asia etc.
• The reference to Pakistan based terrorist organization was a mere reiteration of text of the Heart of Asia 2016 declaration.

Limited scope of BRICS

• It seems that China sees little use of BRICS to achieve its geo-political and geo-economic objectives.
• BRICS has no relevance for China as far as issues like North Korea, South-China sea, freedom of navigation are concerned.
• Brazil and South Africa are increasingly becoming peripheral to the aims and objectives of BRICS.
• Russia is currently more preoccupied with establishing its supremacy in Eurasia.
• However, the summit provided an opportunity for leaders to meet and conduct business; PM Modi called for coordinated action for creating a safer, healthier and equitable world.

Bilateral meetings

• The emphasis during PM Modi’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have been on the restoration of ties between the two countries to levels that existed in the past.
• Discussions also centred on ways to boost bilateral trade and investment, especially in the oil and natural gas sectors.
• The meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was significant as it came after the over two-month-long stand-off at the Doklam Plateau.
• The convergence between the two countries on international terrorism at the BRICS Summit seems to have led to a thaw for the time being.
• Assurances emanating from the meeting, and the adoption of a low-key approach, were aimed at enhancing mutual trust.
• The intention seemed to be to establish ‘new ways’ to prevent future incidents such as Doklam, and concentrate on essentials needed to establish better relations.
• However, relations between India and China are unlikely to show any marked improvement in the near, and perhaps even in the medium, term.
• For the present, avoidance of a conflict will remain the principal objective on both sides, with China no doubt looking for an expansion of opportunities for trade.
• The key watchwords would, hence, be peace and tranquillity.

The road after Doklam

• It would take much longer for trust to return.
• Trust between the two countries had begun to be affected as India moved closer to the U.S., strengthened its relations with countries like Japan and Vietnam and participated in multilateral defence exercises which appeared to have an anti-China slant.
• China is likely to view India’s actions with even greater suspicion than hitherto.
• Although, Mr. Xi observed that China and India are “each other’s opportunities and not threats”; India and China “need to show to the world that peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation is the only right choice for the two countries”, India needs to be cautious.
• For the moment, China is anxious to maintain peace on its border with India, as China has lately been sensing opposition to its policies from many other countries, apart from a host of problems in its neighbourhood.