Globe-changing reverberations of the Ukraine war

Source– The post is based on the article “Globe-changing reverberations of the Ukraine war” published in The Hindu on 29th September 2022.

Syllabus: GS2- International Relations

Relevance– Global impacts of Ukrainian crisis

News– The article explains the impacts of Russia-Ukraine powers. It also explains the response of major powers and its implications for future world order.

Big powers have always feared being surrounded. Russia has always felt vulnerable on its western front.

What are the impacts of the Ukraine war?

Russia had poor strategy and weak logistics. It has paid a heavy price militarily, economically and diplomatically.

There are more losses of human life than during the 10-year Afghanistan intervention.

There is huge devastation in Ukraine. Around 10 million people have crossed to neighbouring countries and 7 million people displaced internally.

What is Russia’s response?

Ukraine counter-offensive has retaken a 6500 square kilometres area and forced Russian forces to retreat to the Kharkiv border.

It has led Putin to announce referendums in occupied areas. Putin is planning to mobilise more focus. He is threatening to use nuclear weapons. Mr. Putin now interprets the current war as an existential struggle in which Russia would make use “of all weapon systems available

to us”.

What will be the consequences for the future?

Ukraine will continue to remain hostile.

Putin’s objective of ensuring Russia’s security will remain elusive. He will suffer reputational damage both in Russia and at global level.

It will be beneficial to the west if war continues.

Rivalries between west and Russia would be sharper than during the cold war. The threat of nuclear weapons will increase as the treaty on non-proliferation will come under huge stress.

The strength of nationalism, based on ethnicity, culture, religion, history and language,

will grow.

The Ukraine war will lead to major economic shifts. States suffering from western

sanctions will try to set up alternative financial and monetary platforms beyond the control of Washington.

There will be increased protectionism and retreat from globalization. It will impact world growth.

Where does China and India stand?

China- It will continue to have a closer relationship with Russia.

India– It will be a setback for India’s vision of a multi-polar world order. It will have security implications for India as we have closer collaboration with Russia in areas of space, nuclear energy and defense.