How invasion of Ukraine could transform nuclear landscape of Asia

News: Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling in Ukraine has triggered a consequential debate on the importance of atomic weapons in deterring Chinese expansionism in Asia.

Geopolitical Impact of nuclear threats and Ukraine developments in other parts of the world

(a) In Japan, Ex-PM of Japan, Shinzo Abe, called for a national debate on hosting American nuclear weapons on Japanese soil, (b) In South Korea, Presidential runner Yoon Suk-yeol talked of strengthening Seoul’s nuclear deterrence against both Pyongyang and Beijing, (c) In Taiwan, a nuclear-powered submarine is being reportedly developed, and (d) In Australia, nuclear-powered submarines are  being built while working with the UK and the US to build.

Why China’s eastern neighbours are taking a fresh look at the nuclear option?

American Commitment does not cover Taiwan: The current US policy does not explicitly state that its armed forces will come to the rescue of Taiwan if it is attacked by China.

Legal Guarantees Are Not Substitute for nuclear weapons: In 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up the nuclear weapons that it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for guarantees on Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Whether US Nuclear umbrella or the so-called extended deterrence will work: For example, The US actively discouraged Taiwan, South Korea and Japan from developing nuclear weapons in return for American security commitments, including the shelter of the American “nuclear umbrella”.

Threat of China emulating Russia: China has been giving signals of following the policy of great-power chauvinism and territorial expansionism. For example, China appropriated the territories of its neighbours in the South China Sea, and forcibly absorbed Hong Kong completely.

Growing China-Russia Alliance: Recently, an “alliance without limits” was unveiled by both Russia and China at a summit meeting in Beijing. They agreed for the unprecedented commitment to stand by each other.

What are the possible solutions?

Developing a nuclear arsenal: Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan have significant technological capabilities. But it would be the last and most politically risky option.

Strengthening the military alliance: These countries could develop an alliance with the US and boost national defence capabilities including advanced missile systems.

Nuclear Sharing Agreements: Japan and South Korea talking about potential nuclear sharing arrangements with the US. In Taiwan and Australia, the emphasis is on developing nuclear-powered submarines.

Source: This post is based on the article “How invasion of Ukraine could transform nuclear landscape of Asia” published in the Indian Express on 08^th March 2022