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- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has
said that the southwest monsoon would be arrive in Kerala on June 6. The normal
onset date is June 1.
- The prediction is in line with that of private
weather forecaster Skymet’s which has said that the 2019 monsoon would arrive
in Kerala on June 4 and make a sluggish progress thereafter due to the
influence of El Nino- the large-scale
ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea
surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.
- The IMD uses a customised weather model to
forecast the arrival of southwest monsoon in India. The model has a built-in
error margin of four days.
- The model is based on 6 meteorological
parameters viz. a) the minimum temperatures over northwest India; b) the
pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; c) the outgoing long-wave
radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; d) the lower tropospheric zonal wind
over southeast Indian Ocean; e) the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east
equatorial Indian Ocean; and f) the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the
southwest Pacific region.
- The IMD had earlier said monsoon rains are
expected to be normal in 2019- 96% of the Long-term average (LPA). The IMD
defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the Long Period Average
(LPA). LPA (50year average) of monsoon rains in India is 89 cm.
- The IMD issues operational forecast for the
southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a
whole in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second
stage forecast is issued in June.
- These forecasts are prepared using
state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) and using the
dynamical coupled Ocean-Atmosphere global Climate Forecasting System (CFS)
model developed under Monsoon Mission of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The
dynamic model is known as Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)
- In 2012, National Monsoon Mission was launched with
aim to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for monsoon
rainfall on different time scales.
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