Improve weather models

Source- The Business Standard

Synopsis – For a more accurate weather forecast, a broader set of models and modelers is required.

Relevance: Weather forecasting is important for agriculture and local authorities.

Introduction-

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been criticized for its recent inability to correctly forecast weather.
• The pattern of mistakes over the previous six weeks indicates deeper issues. Either the models need to be re-examined or the forecasts are presented with undue certainty.

Recent failure of IMD

• In North India – The IMD had predicted that the monsoon is expected to cover Delhi, Haryana, parts of west Uttar Pradesh, and west Rajasthan by June.
  • However, The Southwest Monsoon has reached almost all parts of the country, but has stayed away from parts of north India.
• On July 5, the IMD again said the monsoon is likely to spread into northwest India, covering Punjab and north Haryana by July 10. However, there were no signs of any relief even on July 10.
• In Kerala– On May 30, the IMD bulletin projected that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala on May 31; However, it was later revised to imply that the monsoon would arrive on June 3.

What needs to be done-?

• States can turn to private providers for ensemble predictions rather than relying on point forecasts from a single government agency.
  • The private weather forecaster, Skymet’s model, has arguably performed more effectively in predicting monsoon onset over past years.
  • Legitimate private forecasters should have access to a broad set of relevant data points, collected by state agencies. It will make their forecasts available to a wider audience.
  • For Example– the NITI Aayog has partnered with private weather modeling companies in precision agricultural research.