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One year ago, the military in a coup attempted to take over power from the elected civilian government and installed a caretaker government. A lot has changed since then in Myanmar and this requires a diplomatic shift from New Delhi’s side.
What has been situation in Myanmar?
After the coup, the deposed civilian lawmakers put together their own government known as the National Unity Government (NUG), which commands the support of the majority.
Apart from this the coup faced popular resistance from the first day including a wide scale civil disobedience movement. The military in response to this has been firing openly at unarmed protestors, conducting violent night time raids in residential areas, and blocking social media sites. There has also been an armed resistance that has gripped the whole country mainly under the civilian militias, called People’s Defence Forces (PDF).
This has forced military to fight on multiple fronts and powerful ethnic armed groups in the north, northwest and east have joined forces with the PDFs. There have been thousands of clashes between these groups and the army, much more than in Syria or Afghanistan.
What has been India’s approach to deal with Myanmar so far?
Since the coup, India has taken a balanced diplomatic approach on Myanmar, calling for restraint, restoration of democracy and release of political prisoners, but also maintaining its lines of communication with the military. Delhi has also firmly stayed away from imposing sanctions on the junta.
Why India’s approach needs a shift?
The approach that India must maintain its relationship with the junta to counter China and secure its national interest is no longer efficient.
This is because the military is no longer a force for stability in Myanmar. It is incapable of providing the political, economic and social stability that India needs in Myanmar to advance its interests, including development projects.
Economy is rapidly sinking and public faith in the military as a state institution is at its lowest. Military has been facing armed resistance almost in the entire country.
Under the current military regime even the North eastern area of India which shares its border with Myanmar has seen massive decline in security. Chin state, bordering Mizoram and Manipur, has seen dramatic military offensives in civilian areas, which have forced thousands to flee into India. At least four Indian insurgent groups have re-established their camps inside Myanmar, which could act as staging posts for attacks inside India.
India must adopt an approach that can not only provide a stable political environment overall, but also effectively secure its security interests along the border.
What is the way forward?
India can engage more with the NUG as it enjoys much more mass popularity than the military, which means it is in a position to restore calm. It can also engage with the PDFs and ethnic armed organisations , they have also demonstrated sufficient capability in countering the military’s strategic dominance.
Even China realises the new reality and has publicly communicated with pro-democracy forces in Myanmar. However, China does not have strong links with the new PDFs. So, if India really wants to offset Chinese influence in Myanmar, it needs to take this opportunity to forge new friendships.
Source– This post is based on the article “India must prioritise stability in Myanmar” published in Indian express on 16th Feb 2022.
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