India to estimate TB burden using own system

Source: The post is based on the article “India to estimate TB burden using own system” published in The Hindu on 29th March 2023

What is the News?

India has become the first country in the world to have developed a country-level mathematical model to estimate the prevalence of TB cases.

What is the model developed by India to estimate TB cases?

India’s own mathematical model to estimate TB cases is based on the natural history of the disease, individual status of infection, health care, missed or correct diagnosis, treatment coverage and outcomes including cure and death.

The model used data from several sources including the first TB prevalence survey, Nikshay portal, and the sub-national certification system where the TB-free status of various states is estimated and ranked.

Using this model, TB incidence and mortality estimate data for India will be available by March every year, months before the annual WHO estimates are released in October.

What is the data on TB according to India’s own mathematical model?

India’s TB incidence rate stands at 196 per 100,000 population instead of the 210 estimated by WHO.

The TB mortality rate — according to the Indian model — stands at 23 per 1,00,000 people against the 35 that WHO had estimated in 2022. 

The pandemic disruption has been estimated at about 4 lakh missed TB cases for each of the two years, 2020 and 2021.