Israel Lebanon War – Impacts and Way forward- Explained Pointwise

The ongoing Israel Lebanon war has escalated significantly in recent weeks. Israel has intensified its military operations against Hezbollah, and has launched a series of airstrikes across Lebanon. Israel has conducted over 1,300 strikes targeting Hezbollah strongholds and military installations. The escalation of conflict into a full-blown war, has led to widespread violence (killing of around 600 lebanese) and has created a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.

What is the background of Israel Lebanon wars?

The Israel-Lebanon conflict has been marked by a series of wars and clashes, with the most notable of these conflicts being the 1982 Lebanon War, the 2006 Lebanon War.

Other factors in the Israel-Lebanon Civil War

1. Shebaa Farms Dispute- Shebaa Farms, which is located at the intersection of Lebanon, Israel, and Syria. It remains a point of contention between Hezbollah and Israel, after Israeli occupation of the territory.

2. Iran-Israel Proxy War- Iran’s financial and military support for Hezbollah, is another key factor in the ongoing Israel-Lebanon conflict. Israel views Hezbollah as an extension of Iranian influence in the region.

What are the Global impacts of the escalation of Israel Lebanon war?

1. Disruption the geopolitical realignment Process in Middle East- Middle East in recent times has been witnessing geopolitical realignments from the Israel-Arab reconciliation to the Iran-Saudi détente. However, the recent Israel-Palestine conflict and Israel-Lebanon conflict has disrupted the peace and normalisation process in Middle East

2. Middle East as the theatre of Warfare- Middle East had been a theatre of War with Wars like Gulf War, Iraq war, 6 day war. The recent Israel-Palestine conflict has potential to become a full-blown war with involvement of foreign powers like US, EU. This has also made the region a theatre for proxy wars like US and Iran.

3. Disruption of the global connectivity projects and global transport routes- The envisaged projects like India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) have been disrupted by the prolonged conflict in West Asia. The escalation of the Israel Lebanon conflict endangers the strategic supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

4. Disruption of the Global supply chains and increased Inflation- The escalation of the conflict impacts the oil production and supply chain of goods. This will further increase global inflation, which has already been rattling the world economy.

5. Increased Radicalization in the Middle East- The conflict could serve as a rallying point for extremist groups across the Middle East and beyond. Groups like al-Qaeda or ISIS might use the conflict as an opportunity to recruit new members, by framing the war as a broader jihad against Israel and the West.

What will be the impact of the Israel Lebanon Conflict on India?

1. Impact on De-hypenation and West Asia Policy- India had been successfully implementing its de-hyphenation policy in the region. India’s relation with both the Arab World and Israel has improved. However, the escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict puts India in a diplomatic tight spot, and affects India’s de-hypenation strategy in the region.

2. Increase in Inflation- The escalation of the conflict into a full-blown Israel Lebanon war impacts the oil and gas production. Inflation in the country will further increase as India is heavily dependent upon imported oil and gas.

3. Depreciation of the Indian Rupee- The conflict impacts the inflow of FPI and FDI in the Indian financial market. Increase in oil prices will further increase India’s Current Account Deficit(CAD). All these will lead to depreciation of the Indian rupee.

4. Effect on the India Israel Trade- Israel is a major defence and strategic partner of India. Involvement of Israel for a long period in the conflict will drastically reduce the trade between India- Israel. In FY23, India’s total exports to Israel stood at $8.4 billion, while India’s imports from Israel were at $2.3 billion. 

5. Reduction of the remittances from West Asia and safety of Indian emigrants- India has a large diaspora and emigrant population in West Asia. These are a source of large amount of remittance to India(~40 bn dollars). If the conflict turns into a full-blown war across the Middle East, India will be severely impacted. The remittances will plummet. Safe Evacuation of the Indian diaspora will also be a grave challenge.

What should be the Way Forward?

1. UNSC must step up- UNSC must broker a peace talk between the two warring fractions. Global leadership platforms must be used to not let Middle East become another theatre for warfare.

2. Indirect Negotiations- Indirect talks mediated by third parties, such as the United Nations, the U.S., or European countries, could help lower tensions between Israel and Lebanon.

3. Strengthening UNIFIL’s Role- Strengthening the mandate and capabilities of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which has been tasked with maintaining peace along the Lebanon-Israel border, could help in preventing further conflicts.

4. De-militarization of the Shebaa Farm Area- The Shebaa Farms area could be demilitarized and placed under international control. This will reduce the likelihood of future between Israel-Lebanon conflict over the territory.

5. Engaging Regional Actors- Regional powers like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, as well as the Arab League, could play an important role in mediating the Israel-Palestine conflict and fostering a more peaceful environment.