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Source: This post is created based on the article “It’s time India and Japan rethink their nuclear policy” published on The Hindu on 26th July 2022.
Syllabus: GS Paper 2 – Foreign policy of India – India’s nuclear policy
News: A recent report on Asian nuclear transitions by Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment underlined the shared security challenges for Delhi and Tokyo. The shared challenge is increasing Chinese military power and the rapid modernisation of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal.
Until now, both Japan and India were relaxed by the fact that China’s modest nuclear arsenal is not an existential threat. But much has changed now.
What are the factors emphasising shared concerns of India and Japan with regard to China?
First, China’s modernisation and expansion of nuclear arsenal. As per some estimates, China’s arsenal could grow from about 350 now to 1,000 warheads by 2030.
Second, China’s muscular approach to its territorial disputes with other countries. It has adopted the strategies of salami slicing and coercive diplomacy at frontiers with Japan and India.
| Salami slicing is a divide-and-conquer tactic used to dominate opposition. Such operations are too small that they do not give an excuse for war or attract international criticism. However, they give the aggressor country a strategic advantage in the long term. |
Third, Russian invasion of Ukraine has made it clear that if a nuclear power invade another country, international powers feel reluctant to interfere. It is due to the fear of facing nuclear war or attack.
Fourth, given the fact that China is closing the economic and military gap with US, credibility of the US-extended deterrence for Japan is under question.
Fifth, India’s policy of minimum deterrence and a doctrine of no-first-use of nuclear weapons are not sufficient against the China’s aggressive policies.
Sixth, both India and Japan are not well positioned to be champions for the global abolition of nuclear weapons. While India never agreed to give up its own nuclear weapons, Japan despite being the victim of nuclear weapons, is under US nuclear umbrella.
What should be done?
India needs to reconsider its India’s minimum deterrence posture.
US needs to revise its confronting attitudes towards India’s nuclear weapons programme. Instead US should facilitate India’s development of more sophisticated nuclear warheads.
“INFRUS” agreement — between India, France and the US could help India build an underwater deterrence based on ballistic missile carrying submarines (SSBN) as well as nuclear attack submarines (SSN).
