Maldives not allowing India to survey its waters –x` Patience and vigilance

Source: The post Maldives not allowing India to survey its waters has been created on the article “Express View on Maldives and India: Patience and vigilance” published in “Indian express” on 16th December 2023.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS paper2- International relation-India and its neighborhood-relations.

News: The Maldives government chose not to renew a 2019 agreement that allowed India to conduct hydrographic surveys (Mapping of water bodies to promote secure and effective maritime transportation). This decision seems influenced by local politics. The Maldives is shifting away from India, influenced by China’s growing role in the region. India needs to respond carefully.

What are the reasons behind Maldives government’s steps against India?

Domestic Politics: The decision aligns with President Muizzu’s “India Out” campaign, reflecting a shift in domestic political sentiment.

Influence of China: The Maldives is increasingly engaging with China, evident from Vice President Latheef attending a China-organized Indian Ocean Forum (which excluded India) and skipping an India-related event (Colombo Security Dialogue).

Regional Power Dynamics: India’s dominant role in the region is being challenged by China’s growing influence. The Maldives, like Sri Lanka, is using its strategic location to navigate between these major powers.

Short-term Political Gains: The Muizzu government’s move appears to prioritize immediate political benefits over long-term mutual interests with India.

For more information on Shift in Maldives’ foreign policy read here

What is the implication for India?

The non-renewal of the hydrographic survey agreement reduces India’s strategic reach in the Indian Ocean, impacting its ability to monitor regional waters.

With the Maldives showing a preference for China, as evident in their participation in China-organized forums, India faces a challenge to its regional dominance.

What should India do?

Maintain Patience and Vigilance: India needs to be patient, understanding the long-term implications of its actions in response to the Maldives’ decision.

Balance Engagement and Non-Interference: India should engage positively with the Maldives without appearing intrusive, respecting its sovereignty.

Adapt to China’s Growing Presence: Acknowledge and strategically respond to China’s increasing influence in the region. There is need to draw specific lines concerning China’s activities, especially regarding military presence in the Maldives.

Offer Support for Environmental Challenges: Given the threat of rising sea levels to the Maldives, India should be ready to provide assistance and cooperation in environmental protection and disaster management.

For more information on India-Maldives Relations read here

Question for practice:

Discuss the factors influencing the Maldives government’s decision not to renew the 2019 agreement allowing India to survey its waters