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Context:
A recently published study, “Indian auto-mobility 2020: A perceptive picture,” has forecast several key changes in the transport sector in the next few years.
Details
- The study was conducted by the researchers of the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, the Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow, and Bangalore, and the Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi has forecast several key changes in the transport sector in the next few years.
- The concept of Delphi-method was used to project the relative impact of various influencing factors on the future (2020) of mobility in India.
What is Delphi Method
It is a way of organising the ‘expert’ forecasts about the future. It works by the principle that several heads are better than one, to seek maximum likelihood of some future scenarios. Typically a questionnaire is passed on to a number of experts to acquire their independent The information from the first questionnaire is first… Continue reading What is Delphi Method
Influencing Factors used in the study
1. The cost of Vehicle Ownership – Acquisition and running cost of a motorised vehicle. 2. Fuel Costs – Retail price of fuel at the gas station. 3. Domestic Oil production – The oil in direct access to a nation within its political boundary 4. Ratio of road capacity to road demand – An indicator… Continue reading Influencing Factors used in the study
Major Findings of the study
- The number of registered cars/ 1,000 populations in India is only 16, much lower than that of developed countries. However, land use, along with workforce participation and age-structure of the population, is perceived to increase motorisation in 2020.
- The cost of vehicle ownership is forecast to increase by up to 28% than what it used to in 2012.
- Large Indian cities such as Mumbai and Bengaluru would have greater passenger kilometre travelled/capita (PKT/c).
- As India reaps its demographic dividend, the larger workforce is expected to settle in ever-growing Indian cities and help increase the PKT/c of the country in 2020.
- However, the fuel costs would be a hindrance to the PKT/c growth, as the cost of one-litre petrol in India is 37% of the average daily income, which is way higher than the 2% in the U.S., Germany and Japan.
- The auto-mobility score for India, calibrated from the perception study, is as low as Japan and much lower than the auto-mobility scores of BRIC countries and others like the U.S. This indicates that there will be lower car usage in India.
Conclusion: Motorization in India is soaring. The travel demand in the country is forecast to rise owing to various factors. Although this mobility will be highly price-sensitive. With the increasing motorization in India, the mobility is projected to get pricier.
