Myanmar Military Coup and India

Source: This post Myanmar Military Coup and India has been created, based on the article “A closer look at Myanmar’s discontent” published in “The Hindu” on 29th January 2024.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2 – International Relations – India and its Neighborhood – Relations

News: This article discusses the political and military situation in Myanmar. It describes how, since a military coup three years ago, there has been resistance against the army, involving various ethnic armed groups and local defense forces.

What are the consequences of the Myanmar military coup?

Widespread Civil Disobedience: Following the coup, a significant civil disobedience movement emerged, indicating widespread public opposition to the military takeover.

Formation of Resistance Forces: The ousted parliament members established the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), demonstrating organized political resistance against the military.

Escalating Armed Conflict: Ethnic armed organizations, like the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army, inflicted significant losses on the military, especially in Shan State.

Loss of Territorial Control: The military’s loss of Paletwa town, a critical node in India’s Kaladan project, exemplifies the significant territorial setbacks they faced.

Internal Displacement and Refugees: Military actions against civilians caused substantial internal displacement and a refugee crisis in neighboring countries.

Military Recruitment and Desertions: There’s growing difficulty in military recruitment and increased desertions, including over 150 soldiers seeking refuge in India.

Diminished Military Cohesion: The punishment of army officers for failing to prevent desertions points to internal issues and weakening cohesion within the military.

What is the position of Myanmar’s neighboring countries on the military coup?

China’s Position:

Defends Myanmar Military: China supports the Myanmar military on international platforms.

Engagement with Ethnic Armed Groups: China maintains relations with ethnic armed organizations on Myanmar’s northern border, indicating a strategic balance.

Ceasefire Facilitation: China’s involvement in negotiating a ceasefire between rebels and the Myanmar army suggests its significant influence in the region.

ASEAN’s Stance:

Exclusion of Myanmar Military: ASEAN has denied the Myanmar military participation in its summits.

Limited Mediation Success: Despite efforts, the ASEAN special envoy faced challenges in engaging with all relevant stakeholders in Myanmar.

Thailand’s Approach:

Thailand shares a 2,416 km border with Myanmar, giving it substantial influence.

The Thai Foreign Minister interacted with both Myanmar’s military leadership and Aung San Suu Kyi, reflecting direct diplomatic engagement.

Thailand hosts Myanmar exile organizations and has escalated humanitarian assistance, showcasing its multifaceted involvement in the crisis.

What should India do?

Enhance Humanitarian Aid: India could increase its humanitarian assistance to help displaced people in Myanmar, which might also reduce the number of refugees entering India.

Recognize Ongoing Resistance: India should be aware of the continuous resistance against the military coup, showing no signs of abating despite the lack of a charismatic leader and substantial international support.

Adapt to Myanmar’s Political Fragmentation: It’s important for India to consider the fragmented control in Myanmar, with different areas being controlled by the military, ethnic armed groups, and PDFs.

Reassess Policy with Stakeholder Input: India could benefit from revising its Myanmar policy after engaging in discussions with all relevant parties, responding to the complex regional dynamics.

Question for practice:

Evaluate the impact of the military coup in Myanmar on the country’s internal dynamics and regional relationships