New Delhi’s balancing act: We must find our own way to manage the current turbulence in the triangular relationship between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing

Source: The post is based on the article “New Delhi’s balancing act: We must find our own way to manage the current turbulence in the triangular relationship between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing” published in the Indian Express on 23^rd August 2022.

Syllabus: GS 2: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

Relevance: To understand the present development of great power rivalry.

News: A Chinese scholar has said that India will be a major beneficiary if the US can contain China in East Asia and the Western Pacific. Some other scholars said that the fight between Russia and Europe weakens both sides and would eventually benefit a rising India.

What will be the impact of the China-Taiwan conflict?

In a deeply integrated world, great power conflict has systemic effects and consequences for everyone. For instance, the Russian war in Ukraine and the Western sanctions in response have roiled global oil markets, disrupted the food supply chains and pushed the global economy into a fresh crisis.

If the current tensions around Taiwan turned into a war, the global economy will sink even further. Taiwan’s geopolitical location, its special place in US-China relations, and its centrality to global manufacturing supply chains will make war in Asia far more consequential than the European one.

What are the policies of global governments at present times?

China: China is convinced now that it has the power to redeem its historic territorial claims vis a vis India and other Asian neighbours. Further, the changing Asian balance of power allows China to set the terms of engagement with the US in its own favour.

Russia: It proclaimed an alliance with China without limits.

In Europe, the Russian aggression has compelled Finland and Sweden to join the US-led NATO.

Japan: It has embarked on its own rearmament and is strengthening its alliance with the United States and is eager to build regional coalitions against China.

India’s evolution of China policy

India pursued long a “China-first strategy” despite persistent evidence that Delhi’s contradictions with Beijing are structural and not amenable to easy resolution. For instance, a) At a time when China was isolated in Asia and the world in the 1950s and 1960s, India campaigned with the rest of the world to engage with China, b) India insisted that China is the rightful owner of a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council.

But China’s Galwan clash tampered with the three decades of peace and tranquillity on the disputed frontier and brought a change in India’s China policy.

How can India benefit from the China-Taiwan conflict, and what are the concerns associated?

China’s fight with Taiwan will reduce China’s “attention toward the Indian Ocean. So the experts are of the opinion that India would take this opportunity to strengthen its maritime power and consolidate its advantages in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.

Concerns of the expert’s view: a) China’s conflict with the US over Taiwan during the late 1950s was also the period when Sino-Indian tensions over Tibet turned into the 1962 war, b) China now has the political will, economic power, and growing naval capability to pursue a two-ocean strategy.

What should India do in the great power rivalry?

India must find its own way to manage the current turbulence in the triangular relationship between the US, Russia, and China. India should reduce the power gap with China, build the capacity to deter China’s aggressive actions on its land and maritime frontiers, and rebalance the Indo-Pacific.