No, the US-led global order is not collapsing

Source: The post US-led global order has been created, based on the article “No, the US-led global order is not collapsing” published in “Indian express” on 3rd January 2024.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS paper2- International Relations-Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests

News: The article discusses the challenges to US-led global order due to global conflicts, the rise of China, and internal US divisions. It explores Eastern perspectives, India’s strategic positioning, historical resilience of the West, and the complex global power dynamics.

What is the US-led global order?

The US-led global order is a system where the United States, due to its economic and military might, takes a leading role in shaping international policies, norms, and institutions. It emphasizes democracy, free markets, and security alliances, influencing global governance, trade, and diplomacy. This order has guided international relations and conflict management since the end of World War II.

What are the arguments favoring the decline of the US-led global order?

Military Stalemates and Conflicts: The ongoing military stalemate in Ukraine and escalating conflicts in the Middle East highlight the challenges to US-led Western military and diplomatic influence.

Rising Eastern Powers: Chinese assertiveness in Asia, along with increasing confidence among Eastern political elites, points to a shift in global power dynamics, signaling a perceived end to centuries of Western dominance.

Internal Political Turmoil: The United States is experiencing intense political polarization, and there are signs of potential further instability. This undermines the West’s global standing.

Economic Indicators: The continuous decline in the share of G7’s GDP in the global economy, particularly Europe’s diminishing economic weight, suggests a relative economic decline of the West compared to emerging powers.

For information on G7 read here

What are the arguments against the decline of the US-led global order?

Historical Resilience: Despite numerous crises, the West has continuously adapted and overcome challenges, from the defeat of totalitarian regimes to the survival and adaptation of its capitalist and democratic institutions.

Dominant Position: The U.S. still holds nearly 24% of global GDP, leading in technological innovation and production of new scientific knowledge, indicating a sustained economic and cultural influence. Western societies continue to attract millions worldwide, evidenced by immigration trends and the global influence of Western academia, arts, and culture.

Desire for Westernization: Even within rival powers like Russia and China, there are significant political forces advocating for integration and accommodation with the Western-led order, suggesting its enduring appeal.

Current Confrontation with China: Despite assumptions that China would dominate, its economic slowdown and demographic decline suggest it won’t overtake the U.S. economy soon, maintaining Western economic leadership.

Challenges within Non-Western Institutions: The deepening contradictions between members of non-Western institutions like the BRICS and SCO, particularly between India and China, undermine their effectiveness as alternatives to the Western order. This discord highlights the lack of a unified front that could challenge the West’s dominance.

For information on BRICS read here

For information on SCO read here

What is India’s stance?

Balanced Approach: While acknowledging the shifting dynamics due to Eastern assertiveness, India does not wish for a decline of the West, especially as it does not desire China to replace the US as the dominant power in Asia.

Economic and Political Engagement: Two decades of engagement with the West have provided India with confidence and negotiating skills, leading to a strategic partnership despite occasional disagreements.

Question for practice:

Examine India’s stance on the US-led global order and its approach to the shifting dynamics in international geopolitics.