On Increasing global elderly population – The world is getting older. Can India cope?

Source: This post on the trends of ageing has been created based on the article “The world is getting older. Can India cope?” published in The Indian Express on 4^th November 2023.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 1 Indian Society – Population and associated issues.

News: This article discusses the trends in human population growth, especially ageing, as reported by the UNFPA. It also highlights the challenges associated with a rapid pace of ageing and low fertility levels.

What are the findings of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)?

Findings of the UNFPA include:

1) Shrinking Population in Asia and Europe: By 2100, most of the fastest shrinking populations will be in Asia and Europe.
For instance, China’s population will decline from 1.4 billion to 732 million in 2100.

2) Ageing of Population: Globally, ~14% of the total population comprises those aged 60 years and above in 2022. By 2050, this share is expected to rise to 22%.

3) Early Onset of Low Fertility Rates in developing countries: A significant drop in fertility levels is being seen very early in their development journey.

Global Population Trends. Source: Statista

What is the “greying” phenomenon?

Greying refers to a cumulative result of increasing longevity, declining fertility and the progression of larger groups of population to older ages.

In the 1970s, there were 3 times as many 15 to 24-year-olds then older people. By 2050, these age groups will be equal.

What is the ageing scenario in India?

According to UNFPA’s India Aging Report, 2023:

1) Rapid Ageing of Population: In 2022, the 10.5% of India’s population was aged 60 years and above. By 2050, this share will double to 20.8%.

2) Cohort of the aged surpassing the cohort of children: The number of elderly people will be larger than the number of children (those below 15 years) by 2046.

3) The report also points out that this unprecedented rise in the ageing population will have significant implications for health, economy and society in India.

What is the status of India’s Fertility Rates?

According to the National Family Health Survey 2022, except for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar (amongst the larger states), fertility rates elsewhere have dropped below the replacement level of 2.1.

In urban India, the fertility rate is at 1.6. This is below replacement level, and combined with increased longevity, will ensure that the elderly constitute a significant segment of our population.

For a detailed breakdown of India’s Fertility Rates, read here.

What are the implications of a rapid ageing of population?

1) Unsustainable economic burden of sustaining the aged: Developed countries with better economies could sustain their elderly people when their populations began to age rapidly. This is not the case with countries like India.

2) Slowing of economic growth: Ageing populations mean fewer workers, fewer taxpayers and hence, a reduction in a country’s ability to generate wealth.
For instance, China is expected to replace USA by 2035 to become the largest GDP. However, the rapid decline in China’s population means that USA will reclaim the top position soon due to its liberal immigration policies.

3) Burden on Healthcare: Rise in the number of aged also means enhanced burdens on healthcare systems.

4) Impact on geopolitical power: Lancet research points out that by the end of this century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and USA as the dominant powers, due to a larger working age population.

What can countries do to prevent rapid ageing?

1) Policy decisions such as immigration and strong reproductive and sexual rights for women will be key to reversing the ageing trend.

2) Following policy decisions can persuade working women to have more children:

1. Good healthcare
2. Work-life balance
3. Childcare and maternity leave
4. Educating male partners about sharing burden in household tasks.

Terminology used:

Total Fertility Rate: It refers to the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her lifetime. TFR of about 2.1 is called Replacement-level fertility. TFR less than 2.1 indicates that a generation is not producing enough children to replace itself, eventually leading to an outright reduction in population.

Question for practice:

A rapid pace of ageing poses a wide range of socio-economic and political challenges. What are these challenges? Discuss in the context of India.