On The Myanmar Crisis – How resistance forces in Myanmar pose a serious threat to the junta

Source: The post on the Myanmar crisis has been created on the article “How resistance forces in Myanmar pose a serious threat to the junta” published in Indian Express on 18^th November 2023.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2 International Relations – India and its neighbourhood- relations.

News: The article discusses the intense conflict in Myanmar’s Chin State, near India’s border, leading to many Myanmarese nationals fleeing into India. Ethnic and civilian armed groups are challenging Myanmar’s military government, which took power in 2021. This conflict is causing regional instability and affecting India, especially in states bordering Myanmar.

For more information on India-Myanmar Relations, read here.

What is the Current Situation in Myanmar?

Before 2020, Myanmar saw a transition to partial civilian rule with Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) winning in 2015, and tensions over the Rohingya crisis.

The situation in Myanmar with the recent developments, the timeline from 2020 onwards is as follows:

2020 (November): The NLD wins the general elections, which the military disputes as fraudulent.

2021 (February): Military coup ousts the NLD government. Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders are detained, sparking widespread protests and a violent military crackdown.

Late 2021 to 2022: Various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) intensify their resistance against the military regime, resulting in escalating conflicts across the country.

2023 (October 27): The conflict intensifies with the Three Brotherhood Alliance (comprising of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army) launching Operation 1027 in Shan State, causing significant territorial losses for the military.

Late 2023: The resistance forces capture key areas, including Rikhawdar near the Indian border, leading to a refugee influx into Mizoram, India. This reflects a significant shift, as the military struggles to maintain control and faces unprecedented coordination among rebel groups.

What threats does Operation 1027 pose to the military government?

Strategic Territory Loss: Operation 1027 resulted in rebels taking over more than 100 military outposts, significantly weakening the military’s control. This includes capturing Chinshwehaw, a crucial trade point on the China-Myanmar border, threatening a major revenue source for the junta.

Unprecedented Coordination: This operation marks the first time since the coup that rebel groups have coordinated so effectively, posing a major challenge to the military government.

Chinese Factor: Indirect support or tacit approval from China for the rebels adds to the junta’s challenges, given China’s influence in the region.

Military Morale Decline: The Myanmar military is experiencing a significant drop in morale, with entire battalions surrendering without a fight. This is compounded by internal pressure on the military leadership, including high-level purges ordered by the commander-in-chief.

What is the impact of the Myanmar crisis on India?

Refugee Influx: The crisis has led to around 5,000 refugees from Myanmar entering Mizoram, India, creating a humanitarian challenge.

Border Security Concerns: Ongoing conflicts near the India-Myanmar border have raised concerns regarding border security and stability in Indian border states. These concerns encompass issues such as cross-border movement of militants, illegal drug trade, and arms trafficking.

Implications for India’s Act East Policy: strategic projects like IMT trilateral highway play a crucial role in improving India’s connectivity with ASEAN states.

Diplomatic Challenges: India is facing a diplomatic challenge, trying to balance its response to the military coup in Myanmar while protecting its own strategic interests in the region.

Regional Stability: The conflict poses a threat to the overall stability of the region, impacting India’s Northeastern states and their socio-economic conditions.

Question for practice:

Discuss the impact of the Myanmar crisis on India’s regional stability and security.