Planning for resilience in a warming world

News: 2^nd part of 6^th IPCC report highlights the vulnerability of Indian cities to Climate Change.

With Global temp. already 1.1-1.3° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, some impacts of climate Change are bound to happen.

India has almost all type of climate change hotspots. The three major climate change hotspots are the semi-arid and arid regions, the Himalayan ecosystem and coastal zones.

• About half of India’s landmass is arid and semi-arid.
• India has 7,500 km of coastline, with population of 33 crore people living within 150 km from the coast
• The Himalayan region is home to five crore people covering 13 states and union territories.

The report further highlights that most of the national targets determined at the Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow are not sufficient to have an impact in the short term. For example – India will achieve net zero emissions latest by 2070 and would also ensure 50% of its energy will be from renewable energy sources by 2030. None of these targets can stop the breach of the 1.5°C level.

What are the implications of Urbanization as per IPCC report?

In the next 15 years, almost 40% of Indians will be living in urban areas. Urbanization processes have generated vulnerability and exposure combined with climate change hazards.

1. Extreme heat and humidity in urban areas will create life-threatening climatic conditions.
2. The primary drivers of increasing heat exposure in already-warm cities in India will be global warming and population growth.
3. The urban heat island effect will be amplified by heatwaves. Older adults, people with comorbidities, will be most vulnerable.
4. Increasing temperature will result in heat-induced labour productivity loss, leading to economic losses.
5. Climate Change will result in Sea level rise and increase in tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall variability like increasing high-intensity short duration (sub-daily) rainfall. It will lead to larger probabilities of cities getting flooded.
6. In the Himalayan region, due to unplanned urbanisation, changes in land use, and land cover, small towns with populations under a lakh are turning into major urban centres.
7. One of the contributing factors of glacial decline is the deposition of black carbon. Black carbon can be sourced back to stubble burning, brick kilns, polluting industries.
8. Water scarcity in the hilly region has become a new phenomenon of change in hydrological regimes of the region.
9. The ‘wet bulb’ temperature trend is an index of the impact of heat and humidity combined — and its effect on health. Several cities of India in the Himalayan belt are predicted to reach wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C. It will have consequences such as a rise in heat-wave linked deaths or reduced productivity.

How Local bodies in India are increasing adaptability?

Firstly, In Bengaluru, Indian communities have traditionally managed a network of water tanks of immense ecological importance. It made the urban areas water-secure. However, the practice is not continued due to increasing urban areas. However, the restoration of the blue network offers a more sustainable and socially just alternative for managing water resources.

Secondly, Passive cooling technology, is a part of ancient Indian building designs. It is a widely-used strategy to create naturally ventilated buildings. This tech can be used as a counter to urban heat island for residential and commercial buildings.

Third, Local governments in Surat, Indore, and Bhubaneswar linked transformation to local development needs. The report proves that the economic benefits of adaptation are a strategy for local institutions to support adaptation action

Fourth, to manage flooding in Indian cities adaptation measures should include overhauling stormwater management, green infrastructure, and sustainable urban drainage systems.

However, global response needs quantum leaps. Radical ideas like ‘solar geo-engineering’ might gain appeal soon.

Source:

This post is developed based on the article “Planning for resilience in a warming world” Published in Indian Express on 2^nd March 2022.

This post is developed based on the article “A cautionary tale” Published in The Hindu on 2^nd March 2022.

This post is developed based on the article “A vivid climate warning shot across India’s bow” Published in Live Mint on 2^nd March 2022.