Saving Ghouta

Saving Ghouta

What happened?

Under the deal, the Jaish al-Islam, the main rebel group, will evacuate militants linked to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly an al-Qaeda front, from Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus

Regime and Russian forces continue attack

The regime’s argument was that it was seeking to liberate Eastern Ghouta from terrorist occupation. But about 400,000 people are stuck in the enclave

Ceasefire yet to take effect

• Last month, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Eastern Ghouta.
• Thereafter, the Syrian government eased the siege of the city, allowing aid groups to supply assistance. But the ceasefire is yet to take effect.

An opportunity to engage with armed groups

With HTS fighters now being evacuated, it is an opportunity for Russia and the Syrian regime to cease hostilities and engage with the other armed groups, including Jaish and Faylaq al-Rahman, an affiliate of the Free Syrian Army.

Prolonging the conflict

• In Ghouta, the rebels do not have any meaningful support coming from outside that could allow them to resist regime forces.
• What they do now to deter regime advances is to shell the government-controlled parts of Damascus and its suburbs, killing more civilians and giving further reason for the regime to justify its military operations.

Conclusion

Given the Aleppo example and the reality on the ground in Eastern Ghouta, the sooner the government forces and the armed gangs reach an agreement for evacuation, the better it will be for the hundreds of thousands of people in the enclave.