Should India join NATO Plus? Explained, pointwise

Introduction

At the beginning of 2023, the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO expressed openness to increased engagement with India. Subsequently, the U.S. House Select Committee on China proposed to enhance the deterrence of Taiwan by including India to strengthen NATO Plus. However, India rejected this idea. But as Prime Minister’s visit to the U.S. approached, the U.S. Senate’s India Caucus Co-Chairs announced their intention to introduce legislation granting India a “NATO plus five” defense status. Currently, U.S. lawmakers have stopped using “NATO Plus” phrase. Nevertheless, these recent developments have reignited discussions on whether India should form closer relations with NATO.

What is NATO and NATO Plus?

NATO is an intergovernmental military alliance comprising 31-member states, mainly from Europe and North America. It aims to ensure the freedom and security of its members through political and military cooperation.

NATO Plus includes five more member nations which are treaty allies of the US– namely: Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Israel. It is a security arrangement that brings together NATO and five aligned nations to enhance global defence cooperation.

The term ‘NATO Plus’ is not officially recognised within NATO itself but has been used in discussions regarding the potential expansion of the alliance. Read more: NATO: Historical Context and its Role in Ukraine Conflict – Explained, pointwise

Why the US invited India to join NATO Plus?

The US aims to strengthen security cooperation with India based on their shared interest in countering Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. It believes that India should join NATO to safeguard its borders from China and enhance global security to counter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.

The American strategic culture emphasizes treaty-bound alliances. By enhancing India’s capabilities and promoting military-to-military cooperation, the U.S. hopes to establish a formalized relationship like the NATO framework.

Why India refused to join NATO Plus?

India maintains that it can handle any challenges posed by China independently.

The geographical barrier between India and China represented by the Himalayan region makes it currently impossible for India to join an alliance with NATO.

Also, China’s current economic crisis, as evidenced by declining exports and imports, weakens the argument for joining NATO to counter Chinese aggression.

Why should India join NATO Plus?

Strengthened defence capabilities: As part of India’s contacts with various stakeholders on various issues of mutual interests, India has already been in communication with NATO. It also has military exchanges with many NATO members, like the US, Britain, and France, in bilateral and minilateral formats. With increasing regional security challenges, joining the NATO Plus framework could enhance India’s protection and deterrence against potential threats.

Access to high tech equipment: India could also gain access to advanced military technologies, intelligence-sharing platforms, and inter-operability with other member-states.

Decline in India-Russia relations: The relationship has been on a decline despite the best efforts of India. The primary reason is Russia’s recent choices and actions. Russia’s economic stagnation, ambitions in its neighboring regions, closer ties with China, and its aggressive actions towards Ukraine have all made a strong Russia-India partnership less likely. The India-US relationship, on the other hand, have evolved into a strong partnership.

Chinese aggression: China’s rise and its aggression has made a strong India-US partnership a necessity. If China continues with its assertive and aggressive foreign policy agenda against India, India should consider a pragmatic engagement with NATO.

India’s Europe policy: The bureaucratisation of the relations and the lack of high-level political interest has prevented India from taking full advantage of a re-emerging Europe. In the last few years, Delhi has begun to develop an independent European policy. Engagement with NATO can become one important part of India’s European strategy as the continent is searching for a new role in the Indo-Pacific.

Why should India not join NATO Plus?

Breaking India – Russia ties: If India joins NATO Plus, it will directly impact India’s strong, ties with Russia. Russia has been useful to India in dealing with regional security challenges and, in moderating the stance of China. Even though Russia is getting over-dependent on China, post the war in Ukraine, it remains a valuable partner for India. Upsetting Russia would push it closer to China and Pakistan.

Strategic autonomy: India has traditionally maintained a policy of strategic autonomy, allowing it to engage with various nations and blocs based on its own interests. Joining NATO could potentially risk India’s strategic autonomy, particularly concerning its nuclear arsenal. Being part of NATO would essentially mean that India will get dragged into America’s conflicts.

Limiting freedom of action: A military framework will limit India’s freedom of action and prevent it from pursuing an independent policy towards China. Joining the Taiwan strategy of the U.S. under NATO Plus will complicate India’s security, with the possibility of further Chinese military build-up along the India-China border and frequent intrusion.

No real benefit: India may still enjoy tangible benefits of an ally of the US without binding itself in a treaty-based framework. For example, initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) has transformed defence industrial cooperation. India’s status of a strategic partner and a major defence partner, but not a treaty ally, have not obstructed such an important deal. Additionally, neither does NATO Plus provide Article 5 protection that is available to NATO members, nor it is beneficial for achieving AatmaNirbhar Bharat.

Great-power aspirations: India is a middle power with great-power aspirations. It has been the leading voice for the Global South at world forums. A junior-partner status in an alliance would mean giving up its great-power aspirations. It would make it difficult for India to rise as the third pole.

US military base in India: Till now, India does not host any foreign military base on its land. But joining NATO Plus would mean the US will eventually have a military base in India as well. All other NATO plus members are hosting US military bases today.

What should be the future course of action?

India should prioritize addressing regional security challenges such as border disputes, terrorism, and regional conflicts. While NATO has certain competencies to deal with such issues, its larger geopolitical agenda starting from Eurasia to the Indo-Pacific may divert resources and attention away from these pressing issues.

India should seek to profit from its status as a swing state amid great power rivalries. Though it has steadily intensified security and defence partnership with the US, it is under no obligation to take part in the security competition or any possible conflict over Taiwan.

For now, India’s posturing through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) looks more promising than the NATO Plus as there is no mutual-defence pact like NATO. The group is meant to deepen economic, diplomatic and military ties among the members.

India should refrain from direct military involvement with NATO. But a dialogue between India and NATO could facilitate productive exchanges as the two share similar values for a rules-based international world order.

Sources: The Hindu (Article 1 and Article 2), Indian Express, Deccan Herald, Firstpost, Mint, Wion, Observer Research Foundation, The Statesman