After nearly 15 years of civil war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted in a rapid two-week offensive. On December 8, rebel forces captured Damascus, and Assad has reportedly flown to an undisclosed location. The ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has sparked celebrations in Damascus. However, the development raises critical questions about Syria’s future and the role of foreign powers. Global capitals, including New Delhi, remain wary of the complex dynamics that have unfolded amidst the rebellion.
Who are the Key Players in Syrian conflict?
| Bashar al-Assad | Assad assumed power in 2000. He succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled Syria since 1971. Assad was initially seen as a reluctant leader. However, he transitioned to prominence, being voted the “most popular” Arab leader in a 2009 CNN poll. |
| Foreign Actors supporting Bashar al-Assad | Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah provided critical military backing to Bashar al-Assad |
| Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani | This is the main group behind Assad’s ousting. HTS has evolved from al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch into a more locally focused Islamist faction under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. The group dismantled both ISIS and Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch. It focuses more on Syrian nationalism over global jihad. |
| Foreign Actors against Bashar al-Assad | The U.S. and Turkey (Turkey-backed Syrian National Army) supported anti-Assad factions. Israel has also targeted Syria over its support for Palestine. |
What are the reasons behind the ousting of Bashar al-Assad?
1. Economic Missteps and Social Discontent- Bashar al-Assad’s economic reforms, which aimed at modernization, ignored social equity. This left the lower classes of the Syrian society struggling for economic empowerment.
2. Brutal Suppression of Demands for Democratic reforms- The Arab Spring protests of 2011 which reached Syria, was met with a brutal crackdown by Bashar al-Assad. This resulted into a civil war.
3. Rise in religious extremism- The secular society also saw rising influence from religious extremists, as groups like the Islamic State gained control of parts of Syria.
4. Accusation of marginalization of majority- Syria’s Sunni majority accused Assad’s Alawite-led regime of monopolizing power. Further, the broader dissatisfaction with unemployment and rising prices, made Bashar al-Assad extremely unpopular.
5. Shift in Balance of Power- After years of frozen conflict, the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged as a dominant force. Further, the distraction and weakening of Assad’s allies- Russia in Ukraine, Iran in regional conflicts, and Hezbollah in Gaza, helped HTS to seize the capital Damascus.
How does the ongoing Syrian Crisis impact India?
The Syrian crisis has significant implications for India, impacting diplomatic relations, economic interests, and regional stability.
1. Can affect India’s Historical Ties- India and Syria have maintained a long-standing relationship based on historical, cultural, and civilizational ties. India has consistently supported Syria’s claims, particularly regarding the Golan Heights, and has received Syria’s backing on issues such as Kashmir.
2. Effect on Indian Investments in Syria- India has made substantial investments in Syria’s infrastructure and energy sectors. This includes a USD 240 million line of credit for the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant and oil exploration agreements involving ONGC. The fall of Bashar al-Assad could jeopardize these investments, especially if extremist groups gain power.
3. Rise of Extremism- The rise of global extremism like the strengthening of ISIS can create internal and external security challenges for India. Ex- Rise of ISIS based recruitments in India.
4. Diaspora Concerns- The Indian Diaspora in Syria faces serious human rights threats with Syria on the path of turning into a ‘Mediterranean Afghanistan‘.
What Should be the way ahead for India to navigate the Syrian crisis?
India must adopt a balanced, pragmatic strategy to navigate the complexities of the Syrian crisis while safeguarding its interests in West Asia and promoting stability in the region.
1. Maintenance of Political Neutrality- India should avoid taking sides in Syria’s internal conflict or aligning explicitly with any faction. India should ensure that its policy remains non-interventionist and remains focused on peacebuilding.
2. Engage Regional Stakeholders- Collaborate with key players like Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the Arab League to promote a political settlement.
3. Extend Humanitarian Aid- India should partner with international organizations to provide essential assistance, including food, medical supplies, and shelter, to displaced populations within Syria and in refugee camps.
4. Safeguard Economic and Strategic Interests- India should engage with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to mitigate any economic fallout from regional instability.
5. Enhanced focus on Counter-Terrorism- India should remain vigilant about the resurgence of extremist groups in post-Assad Syria. The intelligence-sharing and security cooperation with global partners should be enhanced to prevent threats from spilling over into South Asia.
6. Minute tracking of HTS’s Role- India should closely observe the policies and actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), particularly regarding minority rights and governance.
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