The age of minimalism in India-Pakistan ties

Source– The post is based on the article “The age of minimalism in India-Pakistan ties” published in The Hindu on 8th November 2022.

Syllabus: GS2- India and its neighbourhood relations

Relevance– India-Pakistan bilateral relations

News- The article explains the new normal in India Pakistan relationship.

What is the new normal in India-Pakistan relations?

India-Pakistan relations have entered an age of minimalism.

There is very little bilateral contact today, even fewer expectations of a bilateral breakthrough.

‘Cold peace’ exists on the Line of Control, inside Kashmir and in the verbal exchanges between the two sides.

There is no political will for any better relationship, grand gestures or grand outreach. The bilateral contract is tactical, business-like and unemotional.

Several noticeable features characterize the age of minimalism in India-Pakistan relations. The interlocutors on either side appear to have adopted a clinical approach to dealing with the other side. They discuss and deal with only those issues that need urgent attention. The second feature is more focused on conflict management, with little focus on conflict resolution. Engagement is only for tactical purposes. A larger political context is missing.

The most important aspect of this minimalist approach is Delhi’s ability to shed its traditional hesitations about directly dealing with the Pakistani army establishment. The Pakistan army has taken this approach of direct engagement with the military establishment in Pakistan more seriously.

What has been the traditional character of this relationship?

The relationship is characterized by intense engagement, high value terror attacks, Indian responses, a breakdown of talks, and eventual resumption of talks; rinse and repeat.

What development took place in the relationship after 2014?

There was the invitation extended to Nawaz Sharif for Narendra Modi’s inaugural function in New Delhi which he attended.

Modi made a surprise visit to Lahore in December 2015, and there were discreet meetings between the two National Security Advisers.

In January 2016, even after Pathankot attack by a Pakistan-based terrorist organisation, India did not respond.

The Uri attack in December 2016 and surgical strike by India, practically froze the relationship.

The February 2019 terror attack in Pulwama, and the BJP government’s decisions made in August 2019 on Kashmir led to complete stalemate.

What are the reasons behind this new state of relationship?

Present relationship is the history of missed opportunities, failed attempts at conflict resolution, political inability to resolve conflicts due to the dual power centre in Pakistan, and the lack of political will on either side. These disappointments have led to a recognition in New Delhi that making comprehensive peace with Pakistan is very difficult.

Second, there is a recognition on both sides that there is no easy way to resolve their complicated conflicts and that, going forward. Bilateral conflict resolution may get harder due to rising populism fueled by online hate.

Third, India also realizes that the traditional logic in India that it should first settle its conflicts with Pakistan and then move on to addressing the bigger challenges is not paying any dividend.

Four, there is also a certain confidence in New Delhi today that it does not need to talk to Pakistan to ensure peace inside Kashmir. This growing confidence in New Delhi about its capability to defend Kashmir against Pakistan aggression and belief in deterrence by punishment will further moderate India desire for conflict resolution

Finally, both sides today are preoccupied with other geopolitical challenges like Pakistan with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, and India with an aggressive China on its borders.

What will be the future of this strategy?

The Current strategy of minimalist engagement with the Pakistani deep state is unlikely to be able to tackle the larger substantive political questions. The process may run into challenges over time or its tactical utility might eventually be exhausted.