The difficult path to India-Pakistan peace

Source: The post is based on the article “The difficult path to India-Pakistan peace” published in The Hindu on 6^th September 2022.

Syllabus: GS 2 – India and its neighbourhood- relations.

Relevance: About India-Pakistan relations.

News: After the promulgation of the new Prime Minister in Pakistan, there have been signs of a thaw in India-Pakistan relations.

What is the status of Pakistan’s economy?

After the Covid-19 pandemic, Pakistan’s economy is facing a) Widening current account deficit and high inflation, b) Unprecedented floods and decades of poor planning led to issues in Pakistan’s economy, c) International Monetary Fund (IMF) has begun its $6 billion Extended Fund Facility programme for Pakistan in 2019. It also increased the funding later.

What are the developments in India-Pakistan relations during Pakistan’s economic turmoil?

Earlier Pakistan thought of the economic benefit of seeking trade in essential commodities with India. But due to domestic pressure, they changed their decision.

India provided essential vaccine supplies to Pakistan during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Pakistan Army chief had permitted backchannel talks and a “limited trade resumption package” with India to improve Pakistan’s economy.

What are the challenges in engaging with Pakistan?

Pakistan’s deep securitisation of the Kashmir dispute: This makes it hard for Pakistan’s leadership to stick to one decision for long time.

Domestic issues: In 1953 when Mohammed Ali Bogra and Jawaharlal Nehru negotiated the Kashmir dispute. They got close to an agreed solution on Kashmir. But each time, Bogra’s inability to foster domestic coalitions to support the peacemaking process with India overrode the negotiations.

The same issue of garnering the support of domestic coalitions is still present in Pakistan. This has derailed several India-Pakistan peace dialogues.

When India can expect improvement in India-Pakistan relations?

The outcome of the next general elections might open a sustained backchannel dialogue and trade. Until there is bipartisan support in Pakistan on the need to normalise ties with India and Pakistan enters a long period of de-securitisation, there will not be any long-term improvement.