The population bomb that never was

Source: The post is based on the article “The population bomb that never was” published in The Hindu on 10th April 2023

What is the News?

Researchers from the Earth4All Initiative have released a report titled ‘People and Planet, 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries’. 

The report published their predictions about the world’s human population.

What are the key findings of the report?

The researchers advanced two scenarios in the report:

– In the first scenario, called “Too Little, Too Late”, researchers predicted that if economic development continues as it has in the last five decades, the world’s population would peak at 8.6 billion in 2050, roughly 25 years from now and decline to 7 billion by 2100.

– In the second scenario, called “The Giant Leap”, the researchers concluded that the population will peak at 8.5 billion by 2040 – a decade sooner than 2050 – but then rapidly decline to around 6 billion by 2100. This will be due to our investments in poverty alleviation, gender equity, education and health, ameliorating inequality, and food and energy security.

The report also clarified that these population predictions are more optimistic than the kind of historic fear-mongering and regressive development policies engendered by the ‘population bomb’ metaphor.

It also stated that population alone was never the problem for sustainability, nor will it be for the climate crisis.

What do these findings mean?

These findings proposed that the better and more equitable policies we make today, the lower the earth’s human population will be later this century. 

However, the researchers have been cautious to warn that a declining population alone won’t address the issues surrounding the climate crisis.

How does this report compare to other reports?

The report contradicted the UN ‘World Populations Prospects 2022’ report which predicted that the global population would steadily rise to 10.4 billion in 2080 and then stabilize around that number in 2100.

The UN report also said that India would surpass China as the most populous country in 2023.

India’s own National Family Health Survey estimated India’s total fertility rate to be 2.1 (lower in urban centres). 

These scenarios present India with a unique challenge: on the one hand, it will have a very large ‘young population’ (18-35-year-olds) that is also un- or under-employed, but on the other, it is dealing with rapidly declining fertility and a skewed women-to-men demographic ratio.