Two wars and the consequences for America’s standing

Source-This post has been created based on the article “Two wars, the consequences for America’s standing” published in “The Hindu” on 22 March 2024.

UPSC Syllabus – GS Paper 2 – International relations- Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests

Context – United States Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer demanded a new government in Israel in the wake of rising civilian tolls in Israel Ghaza war. This was equivalent of a political earthquake hitting U.S.-Israel ties that are becoming increasingly fragile.

What is the role played by USA in The Israel-Hamas and the Ukraine wars?

1) Ukraine war–
A) The U.S.A. has provided $75 billion in military and civil aid to Ukraine since February 2022. This aid has been used in weapons purchases, keeping the government functional and its humanitarian requirements.
B) USA is providing substantial intelligence support to Ukraine in the form of real-time information on Russian deployments.

2) Israel-Ghaza war– It is perhaps, the only major country supporting Israel.Further,a substantial aid for Ukraine has been diverted for Israeli use by the Americans last October.

Read more- Ramification of regime change in USA for India

What will be the impact of U.S. election-year politics on both these wars?

1) Current government retaining the power– The trajectory of the Biden policy and its shape is known. However, great political and demographic changes are taking place in the manner with which the U.S. views the world. For example- younger Americans are less positively inclined to Israel than the older ones. As per YouGov poll, more people between the ages of 18 to 29 empathized with Palestinians than with Israelis. Thus, there will be cloud of uncertainty.

2) Victory of Donald trump–

A) Ukraine War – This would definitely affect U.S. policy towards Ukraine. He has already stated the USA would suspend military aid to Ukraine and his government would try to quickly negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

2) Israel-Ghaza war- As for is Israel is concerned, his government will remain a strong supporter. It is important to know that it was his government that has recognized Jerusalem as the Israeli capital in the place of Tel Aviv.
So,it is possible that his government may not criticize Israeli government for human rights violation in Ghaza.

These policies may undermine the role of the U.S. as a guarantor of European security. Its unreliability will also affect its alliance relationships in the Indo-Pacific — with South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, and its growing partnership with India.

Question for practice

What will be the impact of USA’s domestic politics in two major wars?