Two years after Myanmar coup, how the country is a mess — and India’s headache has worsened

Source: The post is based on the article “Two years after Myanmar coup, how the country is a mess — and India’s headache has worsened” published in The Indian Express on 4^th February 2023.

Syllabus: GS 2 – International Relations

Relevance: India-Myanmar Relations

News: The article discusses the changing political scenario of Myanmar and its effect on the bilateral relations between India and Myanmar.

How did the political scenario of Myanmar change?

The Myanmar army seized power on February 1, 2021. The reason behind the coup was the fear that the party which won the election would rewrite the 2008 Constitution and move the powers of the military out of it.

Therefore, the Myanmar military overthrew the elected government and returned Myanmar from democratic state to military dictatorship.

However, the army led government/junta regime has failed to bring the country under its control.

Pro-democracy civilian resistance groups (People’s Defence Forces or PDFs) are fighting the junta and they have been joined by ethnic armed organisations (EAOs).

Furthermore, a National Unity Government comprising many of the elected parliamentarians has been lobbying foreign governments for diplomatic recognition.

The situation in Myanmar has turned violent.

How is the situation of Myanmar present concerns for foreign policy for India?

India has pursued a “dual-track policy” for over three decades with Myanmar, i.e.,  doing business with the junta and as well as sympathizing with the pro-democracy forces.

In the mid-1990s, Myanmar military helped India in securing the borders of its Northeastern states from Northeastern insurgencies. From that time, India has had a good relation with Myanmar military rulers.

Furthermore, India’s engagement with the junta was also seen as retaining its influence in Myanmar in the backdrop of rising threat from China.

Now, with the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, India is held between supporting pro-democratic groups and military rulers. It has its own national interest involved in it, i.e., border security management and restricting China in Myanmar.

What are other associated concerns with India?

Obstacle in cross boundary transport: PDFs control large parts of the area in the Sagaing region through which the trilateral highway passes. There have been occasions when Indian officers had to intervene with the local PDF leaders to allow project vehicles to pass.

Obstacle in developmental project: Sittwe port in Myanmar has been developed by India as part of the Kaladan project. The port was developed with the objective of India-Myanmar maritime trade and to provide alternate access to India’s landlocked north-east states.

It was said that it was ready for inauguration.  However, now it seems way far.

Security concerns with the North-eastern states of India: The Myanmar coup has led the people to move out of the country. Mizoram is hosting thousands of refugees from the adjoining Chin state in Myanmar.

Moreover, the Myanmar Air Force has bombed the area on the border with Mizoram. Its effect was also seen in the state which triggered panic in the area.

Further, as per UN Office for Drugs and Crime, there has been a 33 percent spike in poppy cultivation in Myanmar. The sharpest increase has been noticed in Chin state, in an area that borders northern Mizoram and southern Manipur.

Threat to national security: The Myanmar junta has recruited Indian insurgent groups (IIGs) in regions adjoining Manipur and Nagaland to fight against the local PDFs and other groups. The group has been renamed as junta.

The People’s Liberation Army, one of the groups of IIGs, has been held responsible by India for the deadly attack on an Assam Rifles convoy.

Rohingya crisis: The Myanmar military has not been able to resolve the Rohingya crisis, which has also been the cause of regional destabiliser.

Concerns with India’s image: India describes itself as the “mother of democracy”. Its presidency of the G20 is an opportunity to project the voice of the global south. Therefore, India would be in a dilemma in supporting the type of government in Myanmar and representing its stand on it globally.

What is the way ahead for India?

Despite these concerns, India has options like it can – a) open channels to the democratic forces and to some ethnic groups; b) can work more actively with ASEAN; c) could open an army-to-army channel with the junta; d) increase people to people channels; e) offer scholarships to Myanmar students like it did for Afghan students.