UN’s “World Population Prospects” report

Source: The post UN’s “World Population Prospects” report has been created, based on the article “Demographic destiny: India has a limited window of growth” published in “Business standard” on 16th July 2024

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper1-society-population and associated issues

Context: The article discusses the UN’s “World Population Prospects” report, which predicts global population growth until the early 2080s, with significant increases in sub-Saharan Africa. It highlights India’s population dynamics, emphasizing the need for India to enhance workforce skills to capitalize on its demographic dividend before the population begins to age and decline.

What Does the UN’s “World Population Prospects” Report Say?

1. Global Population Trends According to the UN’s Report:
2. Population Growth: The global population is expected to continue increasing, reaching over 10 billion by the early 2080s.
3. Regional Variation: Significant growth will occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries like Somalia and the DRC, despite their economic and political instability, will see major population increases.
4. Resource Competition: These growing populations in resource-rich regions like the DRC could lead to geopolitical tensions as countries vie for valuable natural resources.

B: Population Dynamics in India and Neighboring Pakistan:

1. India vs. China: India will maintain a higher population than China for the foreseeable future.
2. Population Peak and Decline: India’s population is projected to start declining around 2062, approximately 20 years before the global population peak.
3. Pakistan’s Growth: Pakistan’s population is expected to continue growing, potentially surpassing the United States to stabilize at around 390 million. This could influence regional dynamics and India’s foreign policy.
4. Economic Impact: The slowing growth of India’s working-age population will increase the dependency ratio, signaling potential challenges in sustaining economic growth.

What Should India Focus on for Future Growth?

1. Skill Development: Prioritizing the enhancement of workforce skills is critical to maximizing India’s demographic dividend.
2. Educational Reform: Implementing diverse models of higher education, lifelong learning, apprenticeships, and vocational training to address current skill gaps.
3. Employment Quality: Shifting focus from merely creating jobs to improving job quality and matching skills to market needs.
4. Utilizing the Youth: As the dependency ratio is set to increase, leveraging the potential of young workers before the population ages is crucial to achieve economic growth and avoid stagnation at middle-income levels.

Question for practice:

Discuss the measures India should focus on to maximize its demographic dividend before its population begins to age and decline, according to the UN’s “World Population Prospects” report.