{"id":102314,"date":"2021-04-20T10:09:17","date_gmt":"2021-04-20T04:39:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=102314"},"modified":"2021-04-20T10:35:54","modified_gmt":"2021-04-20T05:05:54","slug":"imds-new-dynamical-forecast-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/imds-new-dynamical-forecast-model\/","title":{"rendered":"IMD\u2019s new Dynamical Forecast Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Synopsis &#8211; <\/strong>IMD recently updated the status of the monsoon and predicted a normal monsoon this year. IMD has adopted a new Dynamical Forecast Model. It will allow farmers, government officials, disaster managers, and other stakeholders to better prepare for their activities.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Introduction-<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/india-meteorological-departmentimd-celebrates-145th-foundation-day\/\">India Meteorological Department<\/a> (IMD) has forecast a normal monsoon for this year.<\/li>\n<li>Further, the southwest monsoon in 2021, which will begin in June, is forecast to be regular, with 98 percent of the Long Period Average rainfall (LPA).<\/li>\n<li>During the monsoon season, weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail, with severity decreasing as the season progresses.<\/li>\n<li>Rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of the <strong>Long Period Average<\/strong> [LPA] is considered normal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>What is the importance of the new Dynamical monsoon Model?<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>New Dynamical Monsoon Forecast Model <\/strong>uses the<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> evolving weather patterns to predict monsoon<\/span><strong>. <\/strong>It is not like the traditional method in which the forecast was based on a <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">fixed set of meteorological variables<\/span>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Also, dynamic models are useful for <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">predicting rainfall over smaller spatial and temporal scales<\/span>. It is not possible with IMD&#8217;s previous statistical forecasting method.<\/li>\n<li>IMD will forecast rainfall for June and September, using this model. It was previously difficult to predict due to the monsoon&#8217;s arrival and departure.<\/li>\n<li>There will also be forecasts for the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">monsoon core zone [MCZ].<\/span> It represents most of the rain-fed agriculture regions in the country.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>Why is it important to correctly forecast rainfall?<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>For disaster preparedness &#8211; <\/strong>Accurate forecasts will aid in the implementation of preventative measures, the reduction of vulnerabilities. It can also prevent extreme events from turning into disasters.\n<ul>\n<li><strong>For example-<\/strong> Preparation of a heat plan\/forest fires plan in case of hot summer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>For agriculture purposes &#8211; <\/strong>Farmers can decide on sowing time based on local conditions. Also, they can decide the type of crop that is best suited to the conditions, using accurate forecasting.<\/li>\n<li><strong>For Government planning-<\/strong> the Centre and states can prepare better joint plans with respect to agriculture; such as drought action plan, MSP and buffer creation. It can better use and optimize government schemes<\/li>\n<li><strong>For several business and service sector industries\u00a0<\/strong>which need weather products.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h5><strong>Way forward-<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>IMD&#8217;s move from a statistical to Dynamical Forecast model will improve the accuracy of its forecast, so that farmers, policymakers, local administration, scientists &amp; aid organizations can make most of it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source- <a href=\"https:\/\/epaper.thehindu.com\/Home\/ShareArticle?OrgId=GUI8GDPO2.1&amp;imageview=0\">The Hindu<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Synopsis &#8211; IMD recently updated the status of the monsoon and predicted a normal monsoon this year. IMD has adopted a new Dynamical Forecast Model. It will allow farmers, government officials, disaster managers, and other stakeholders to better prepare for their activities. Introduction- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal monsoon for this&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/imds-new-dynamical-forecast-model\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">IMD\u2019s new Dynamical Forecast Model<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10319,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230,9],"tags":[1410],"class_list":["post-102314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","category-public","tag-geog_2","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":2,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1698344376},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10319"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102314\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}