{"id":103717,"date":"2021-04-28T10:25:25","date_gmt":"2021-04-28T04:55:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=103717"},"modified":"2021-04-28T20:19:16","modified_gmt":"2021-04-28T14:49:16","slug":"understanding-herd-immunity-and-rising-covid-cases-in-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/understanding-herd-immunity-and-rising-covid-cases-in-india\/","title":{"rendered":"Understanding Herd Immunity and Rising Covid Cases in India"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Synopsis: <\/b>Herd <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/explained-herd-immunity\/\">Immunity<\/a> can\u2019t be attained solely by a rise in Covid-19 positive people. It is also dependent on the absolute number of susceptible individuals and the rate of transmission of the virus.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5><b>Background<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The data from various <a href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/serological-surveys\/\">serological surveys<\/a> in metro cities shows high immunity levels in the metro cities. As per them, Covid-19 had touched:\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">56% of population in Delhi by January 2021.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">75% in some slums in Mumbai in November 2020.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">About 30% in Bengaluru in November 2020.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This indicates attainment of herd immunity but still, the Covid-19 cases are rising.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><b>What is Herd immunity?<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is a stage of an epidemic in which some members of a population group remain protected from infection.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This happens as the majority of those around them have already developed immunity either through vaccination or prior infection.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><b>What is a Serological Survey?<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is a <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">blood test<\/span> that seeks to assess the prevalence of disease in a population by detecting the presence of specific antibodies against the virus.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The test only <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">indicates past infections<\/span> (which triggered an immune response) and is not used to detect active infections.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><b>Understanding the current spread: &#8211;<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The number of daily cases depends on 3 factors:\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Number of infectious people<\/span> in the population (those who have developed immunity)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Number of <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">susceptible individuals<\/span> (those who are not infected)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Rate of transmission<\/span> of the virus &#8211; It depends on the nature of the virus and the extent of contact between individuals.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As per experts, the cases are rising due to:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Increased interaction and contact among the population<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> since February 2021. This increased the virus in circulation and led to increased cases in the susceptible population.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>The high absolute number of Susceptible population <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">among which the virus is circulating. For instance, in this second wave, the affluent class and youth are getting more infected who were less targeted in the first wave.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Therefore, solely relying on the first factor to check the virus spread will not yield rational results.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><b>Future Trajectory<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Firstly, a decline would be observed if it is proved that the virus (even the new strain) is infecting the susceptible population more.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Secondly, a greater surge could occur if the new strain is again infecting the previously infected individuals. This scenario would also question the efficacy of our vaccines in fighting the virus. <\/span><\/span><b>Source<\/b>: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/explained\/complexities-of-herd-immunity-coronavirus-second-wave-7290409\/\">Indian Express<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Synopsis: Herd Immunity can\u2019t be attained solely by a rise in Covid-19 positive people. It is also dependent on the absolute number of susceptible individuals and the rate of transmission of the virus. Background: The data from various serological surveys in metro cities shows high immunity levels in the metro cities. As per them, Covid-19&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/understanding-herd-immunity-and-rising-covid-cases-in-india\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Understanding Herd Immunity and Rising Covid Cases in India<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10322,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230,1351,1310,9],"tags":[1289,1472],"class_list":["post-103717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","category-daily-news","category-daily-news-updates","category-public","tag-soc_0","tag-vaccine_related_issues","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704821756},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10322"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103717\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}