{"id":10579,"date":"2019-10-03T13:24:57","date_gmt":"2019-10-03T07:54:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/factly.forumias.com\/?p=10579"},"modified":"2021-02-27T16:54:49","modified_gmt":"2021-02-27T11:24:49","slug":"monsoon-forecast-in-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/monsoon-forecast-in-india\/","title":{"rendered":"Monsoon Forecast in India"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>News:<\/strong> The Monsoon\nMission Coupled Forecast Model, developed under the Monsoon Mission has failed\nto accurately forecast the excess rainfall in August-September 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Facts:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Monsoon Forecast in\nIndia:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The IMD issues operational forecast for the\nsouthwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a\nwhole in two stages. The <strong>first stage\nforecast is issued in April<\/strong> and the <strong>second\nstage forecast is issued in June.<\/strong><\/li><li>These forecasts are prepared using\nstate-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) and using the\ndynamic coupled Ocean-Atmosphere global Climate Forecasting System (CFS) model\nknown as the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Statistical Ensemble\nForecasting system (SEFS):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>IMD has been using the ensemble statistical\nmodel to predict monsoon since 2007.<\/li><li>It relies on arriving at a prediction based on\nhistorical monsoon data coupled with data on sea-surface temperatures and\nwinds.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Monsoon Mission\nCoupled Forecasting System (MMCFS):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>It has been developed by the National Centres\nfor Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and NOAA National Weather Service, USA.<\/li><li>It is a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling\nsystem that combine data from ocean, atmosphere and land for providing long\nrange forecasting.<\/li><li>As part of the Monsoon Mission project, the Indian\nInstitute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has developed the indigenous strategy\nof the model.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Additional\nInformation:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>National Monsoon Mission:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The National Monsoon Mission was launched in\n2012.<\/li><li>It aims to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical\nprediction system for monsoon rainfall on different time scales.<\/li><li>The mission falls under the aegis of Ministry of\nEarth Sciences.<\/li><li>The responsibility of execution and coordination\nof the mission is bestowed upon the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology\n(IITM), Pune.<\/li><li>Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP, USA has\nbeen identified as the basic modelling system for providing long range\nforecasting (seasonal prediction of Indian Monsoon). Further, the Unified Model\n(UM), developed by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), UK has been\nidentified for short to medium range prediction.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Climate Models:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Climate models are computer programs made up of\nmathematical equations that quantitatively describe how factors like\natmospheric temperature, air pressure, winds, water vapour and clouds respond\nto the heating of the Earth\u2018s surface.<\/li><li>Coupled climate models have equations describing\nthree-dimensional oceanic circulation (the large-scale movement of waters\nacross the Earth\u2019s oceanic basins), and how it transports the absorbed solar\nenergy around the Earth, how it exchanges heat and moisture with the\natmosphere.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rainfall Distribution\non All India Scale <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Normal percentage departure of realised rainfall\nis within \u00b1 10 % of the Long Period Average (LPA)<\/li><li>Below Normal percentage departure of realised\nrainfall is &lt; 10% of the Long Period Average (LPA)<\/li><li>Above Normal percentage departure of realised\nrainfall is &gt; 10% of the Long Period Average (LPA)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> LPA is the\n50 year average of monsoon rains in India and is pegged at 89 cm.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>News: The Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast Model, developed under the Monsoon Mission has failed to accurately forecast the excess rainfall in August-September 2019. Facts: Monsoon Forecast in India: The IMD issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages. The first stage forecast&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/monsoon-forecast-in-india\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Monsoon Forecast in India<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1229,4182],"tags":[3106],"class_list":["post-10579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-disaster-management","category-environment","tag-monsoon-forecast","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1702118895},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}