{"id":158171,"date":"2022-01-03T20:23:28","date_gmt":"2022-01-03T14:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=158171"},"modified":"2022-01-03T20:23:28","modified_gmt":"2022-01-03T14:53:28","slug":"problem-solution-problem-indias-population-will-start-to-collapse-in-two-decades-its-a-matter-of-celebration-and-concern","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/problem-solution-problem-indias-population-will-start-to-collapse-in-two-decades-its-a-matter-of-celebration-and-concern\/","title":{"rendered":"Problem, solution, problem: India\u2019s population will start to collapse in two decades. It\u2019s a matter of celebration \u2013 and concern"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/span><\/p>\n

News<\/span><\/b>: <\/span>Population growth is a function of fertility and life expectancy. India had about 1.38 billion (138 crore) people in 2020. Two recent studies estimate the country\u2019s population to peak at 1. 5-1. 6 billion somewhere between 2040 and 2048.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

India\u2019s population has been on a decline,<\/strong> and several figures point in this direction. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Every year since 2003 the number of live births has been falling consistently<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fertility rate<\/strong> (average number of children born to a woman)<\/em> came down<\/strong> to 2 \u2013 well below the world average in 2019.<\/span> \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It took only 14 years for the fertility rate to fall<\/strong> by 50% (from 3 to 2) in India, whereas in Bangladesh \u2013 globally acclaimed for birth control \u2013 a similar fall took 17 years<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What are the reason for these?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n

Percentage of <\/span>women marrying before the age of 18 has fallen by half<\/span><\/b> in the past 15 years. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Women participation in key family decisions<\/span><\/b> have shot up from 37% to 89% in the past decade and a half.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Urbanisation<\/span><\/b> is another family size suppressor. In rural areas a child is a resource, a free labour to work on farms and tend to livestock. But in a city a child is a liability till adulthood.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The higher cost of raising children<\/span><\/b> also prevents middle and upper middle classes from having a big family.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What can be the new set of challenges that can emerge due to this declining population trend?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n

Compared to other countries with the same fertility rate, India\u2019s infant <\/span>mortality rate is higher and life expectancy is lower<\/span><\/b>.\u00a0<\/span>That means the coming fall in population could turn into a collapse. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

India is also home to the <\/span>highest number of underweight and stunted children<\/span><\/b>. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The peak of India’s <\/span>demographic dividend is already behind<\/span><\/b> it. The prospect of India ageing before prospering to the levels of Western countries is real. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s this fear that has caused China to abandon its draconian single child policy and encourage its youth to have more kids.<\/span> India could be in a much worse situation than China as the productivity level in China are much higher than India.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Can this trend be reversed?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n

Policy persuasion does not help in convincing people to go for smaller or no families.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The immediate task for India is to save more children at birth and ensure that they grow into healthy and educated adults<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Source:<\/span><\/b> This post is based on the article \u201c<\/span>Problem solution problem: India\u2019s population will start to collapse in two decades. It\u2019s a matter of celebration \u2013 and concern\u201d <\/span><\/b>published in\u00a0Times of India<\/strong>\u00a0on<\/span>\u00a03rd<\/sup>\u00a0Jan 2022<\/span><\/b>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

News: Population growth is a function of fertility and life expectancy. India had about 1.38 billion (138 crore) people in 2020. Two recent studies estimate the country\u2019s population to peak at 1. 5-1. 6 billion somewhere between 2040 and 2048.\u00a0 India\u2019s population has been on a decline, and several figures point in this direction. \u00a0… Continue reading Problem, solution, problem: India\u2019s population will start to collapse in two decades. It\u2019s a matter of celebration \u2013 and concern<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10328,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230,9],"tags":[263,10496],"class_list":["post-158171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","category-public","tag-gs-paper-1","tag-times-of-india","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10328"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=158171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158171\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=158171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=158171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=158171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}