<\/p>\n
Context<\/span><\/b>: At present, Russian invasion of Ukraine is facing a lot of criticism from the international community. It seems Russia is not going to win the war. <\/span><\/p>\n This is going to be very similar to the Russian and US failures in Afghanistan, and their failed interventions in West Asia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Russia is said to be a superpower not on the basis of its economy, but due to its <\/span>conventional military capacity<\/span><\/b>. For example, a vast nuclear arsenal.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The <\/span>conventional military invasion<\/span><\/b> cannot succeed, <\/span>fierce domestic resistance<\/span><\/b> (Underdog strategy) in Ukraine.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Russia’s war will remain subject to <\/span>local resistance,<\/span><\/b> strong sanctions<\/span><\/b> and Russia will remain a <\/span>pariah state<\/span><\/b> in the eyes of the West. It will lose the economic links with Europe, which are central to its economic viability, and will be forced into a <\/span>subordinate position<\/span><\/b> in an alliance with China.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n There can be a <\/span>rapprochement<\/span><\/b> between <\/span>Russia<\/span><\/b> and <\/span>Europe<\/span><\/b>. The reason may be the impact of <\/span>economic sanctio<\/span><\/b>ns<\/strong>, <\/span>unexpected military setback<\/span><\/b>s, <\/span>Europe\u2019s dependence<\/span><\/b> on Russian oil and gas and <\/span>Russia\u2019s dependence<\/span><\/b> on access to European markets. <\/span><\/p>\n In fact, Europe\u202fis still importing energy from Russia & has exempted the banks from the sanctions for making payments for the energy import.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n There can be a <\/span>new Cold War<\/span><\/b> dominated by China and the US-NATO. Russia will be playing the role of a junior partner to China. Its <\/span>substantiality<\/span><\/b> in <\/span>global geopolitics<\/span><\/b> and the world economy will depend on two factors – (1) First, Russia may not accept subordination to China. Both have competing interests in the Stans of Central Asia<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n (2) China\u2019s <\/span>geopolitical claims<\/span><\/b> and <\/span>ambitions<\/span><\/b> in the <\/span>South China Sea<\/span><\/b> and <\/span>Taiwan<\/span><\/b> or its economic, technological and investment linkages with the West. However, <\/span>China<\/span><\/b> will remain cautious to project its power in Taiwan and the SCS. China can face the potential impact of Western sanctions on its economy. It depends on access to the OECD markets and Asian market and investments from the developed world.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Russia can escalate the war by using <\/span>tactical nuclear weapons<\/span><\/b> or <\/span>chemical attacks<\/span><\/b>. It will deepen the western engagement in the war, and could lead to an all-European war if the conflict extends to border NATO states. This could well become a global war with the inevitable US engagement and a possible Chinese involvement.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Germany<\/span><\/b> and <\/span>Japan<\/span><\/b> can emerge as <\/span>military powers. <\/span><\/b>They have economic and technological capacity. They can move to <\/span>higher military spending, <\/span><\/b>and can start projecting power abroad. This can influence the power balance in\u202f<\/span>Europe<\/span><\/b>\u202fand <\/span>East Asia.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Implications on India\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n India is caught in the middle of this <\/span>geopolitical tension <\/span><\/b>between the US-NATO and China-Russia. India could not exercise <\/span>geopolitical choice<\/span><\/b> due to Its <\/span>defence dependence on Russia<\/span><\/b>.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n India needs a <\/span>medium<\/span><\/b> to <\/span>long-term strategy<\/span><\/b> to cope with the new Cold War and the threat of escalation.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n It should reduce its <\/span>defence dependence<\/span><\/b> on the super-powers, by <\/span>balancing<\/span><\/b> the <\/span>dependence<\/span><\/b> on Russia and the West, and at the same time building up <\/span>domestic capacity<\/span><\/b> more rapidly.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n At foreign policy level, India can build a <\/span>global alliance<\/span><\/b> which would act as a <\/span>coalition of restraint<\/span><\/b> on the two adversaries in the <\/span>emerging geopolitical conflict<\/span><\/b>. <\/span><\/p>\n –<\/strong> For example, the 58 countries which abstained from voting on the <\/span>UN General Assembly (UNGA)<\/span><\/b> resolution to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council can be a starting point. They can revive <\/span>old non-aligned movements<\/span><\/b>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n –<\/strong> If and when the <\/span>geopolitical conflict<\/span><\/b> gets entrenched, India can lead this global alliance to form a <\/span>Third Force<\/span><\/b>. This force would act as a <\/span>restraining force. <\/span><\/b>This would prevent the European conflict from becoming an implicit or explicit <\/span>Third World War.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Source<\/span><\/b>: The post is based on an article \u201cThe march of folly<\/strong>\u201d published in the Business Standard<\/strong> on 28<\/strong><\/span>th<\/strong> April 2022<\/strong>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Context: At present, Russian invasion of Ukraine is facing a lot of criticism from the international community. It seems Russia is not going to win the war. This is going to be very similar to the Russian and US failures in Afghanistan, and their failed interventions in West Asia.\u00a0 Why is Russia not going to… Continue reading The march of folly\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10328,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230,9],"tags":[10503,212],"class_list":["post-181961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","category-public","tag-business-standard","tag-gs-paper-2","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704862161},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/181961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10328"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=181961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/181961\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=181961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=181961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=181961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Why is Russia not going to win this war?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n
What are the implications of Russian failure for global geopolitics over the next few years?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n
Optimistic Scenario<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n
Most likely outcome\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n
\n<\/span><\/p>\nPessimistic Scenario<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n
Subsidiary outcome<\/span><\/b> to pessimistic Scenario<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n
Way Forward<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n