{"id":185009,"date":"2022-05-17T21:02:44","date_gmt":"2022-05-17T15:32:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=185009"},"modified":"2022-05-17T21:02:44","modified_gmt":"2022-05-17T15:32:44","slug":"a-war-that-is-shrinking-indias-geopolitical-options","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/a-war-that-is-shrinking-indias-geopolitical-options\/","title":{"rendered":"A war that is shrinking India\u2019s geopolitical options\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Relevance: <\/span><\/b>Global and Asian Geopolitics, India-China Relations, India-Russia relations<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

News<\/span><\/b>: The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is now raging on with no end in sight, and with its long-term implications yet unknown.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What are the consequences for India?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n

India\u2019s initial phase of diplomatic rush is over. Its geopolitical options are shrinking as the war drags on.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Diminishing options<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Earlier, India\u2019s balancing act propelled it to the centre stage of <\/span>global attention<\/span><\/b>. Therefore, a number of <\/span>high-profile vis<\/span><\/b>its were seen in India. India had a number of geopolitical options. But, the number of <\/span>options<\/span><\/b> seems to be <\/span>limited<\/span><\/b> for at least <\/span>three reasons<\/span><\/b>:\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One, <\/span>Russia<\/span><\/b> which is a key strategic partner of India is <\/span>no longer available<\/span><\/b> to India for balancing purposes. Now, Moscow is more dependent on India today than the other way round.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Two, By the time the war ends, <\/span>Asia\u2019s<\/span><\/b> regional balance of power<\/span><\/b> would be shifted in Beijing\u2019s favour. Therefore, India\u2019s challenge of managing China would continue to increase. The Ukraine war has complicated the China conundrum for India.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Three, today, the <\/span>focus<\/span><\/b> of the <\/span>United States<\/span><\/b> and its <\/span>western partners<\/span><\/b> has <\/span>shifted<\/span><\/b> from China and the Indo-Pacific to the <\/span>Ukraine theatre<\/span><\/b>. Further, the war will further weaken the <\/span>American influence<\/span><\/b> in the <\/span>Southern Asian region<\/span><\/b> due to preoccupations with the European theatre.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Others<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the longer run, a war-fatigued and weakened <\/span>Russia<\/span><\/b> will become a <\/span>junior partner<\/span><\/b> to China.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For New Delhi, instead of how to please both sides in this war, now the bigger question is how manage China which is rapidly consolidating in the region under its influence.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Today, India\u2019s <\/span>immediate to medium term engagement<\/span><\/b> with Russia can have a <\/span>second-order fallout<\/span><\/b> in the <\/span>medium to long term<\/span><\/b>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

War is impacting India\u2019s <\/span>north-western continental strategy<\/span><\/b> towards Afghanistan and Central Asia. Earlier, India withdrew from Afghanistan due to Taliban\u2019s return. This led to decline in <\/span>India\u2019s strategic interests<\/span><\/b> in Afghanistan. Now, due to war, China\u2019s role into the region will increase, so <\/span>India\u2019s footprint<\/span><\/b> will be reduced in the Central Asian region.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Measures taken by India<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n

The Chinese Foreign Minister\u2019s visit to India is an indication that Beijing also seeks to calm the tempers on the LAC.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

During the Chinese Foreign Minister visit, Indian leaders made it clear that the normalisation of <\/span>diplomatic<\/span><\/b> and <\/span>political ties<\/span><\/b> between India and China can happen only after the <\/span>disengagement<\/span><\/b> of troops from the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Indian Prime Minister is to attend the BRICS Summit in China. It should leverage the summit.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

India can exploit <\/span>China-Russia ties<\/span><\/b>. At present, Moscow can <\/span>nudge<\/span><\/b> Beijing to stop its aggression on the LAC. If China heats up the LAC at present, India would have to turn to the West and the U.S. for political, diplomatic, and intelligence support which would not be in Russian interests.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is important that two of its <\/span>Asian friends<\/span><\/b> China and India do not clash, at least while the war is still on.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What are the challenges if India exploits Russia-China ties?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n

If China stabilises the LAC at the <\/span>nudging<\/span><\/b> of Russia, it would also expect India to go slow on the Indo-Pacific.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At present due to the Ukraine war, India cannot utilise the <\/span>many inherent contradictions<\/span><\/b> between Moscow and Beijing.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moscow should understand that the Ukraine war is going to boost Beijing\u2019s attempts to take over its <\/span>backyard<\/span><\/b> using <\/span>economic means<\/span><\/b>, which the <\/span>NATO<\/span><\/b> has been doing to Russia using military means.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Source<\/span><\/b>: The post is based on an article \u201cA war that is shrinking India\u2019s geopolitical options<\/strong>\u201d published in the \u201cThe Hindu<\/strong>\u201d on 17<\/strong><\/span>th<\/strong> May 2022<\/strong>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Relevance: Global and Asian Geopolitics, India-China Relations, India-Russia relations\u00a0 News: The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is now raging on with no end in sight, and with its long-term implications yet unknown.\u00a0\u00a0 What are the consequences for India?\u00a0 India\u2019s initial phase of diplomatic rush is over. Its geopolitical options are shrinking as the war drags… Continue reading A war that is shrinking India\u2019s geopolitical options\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10328,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230,9],"tags":[212,10498],"class_list":["post-185009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","category-public","tag-gs-paper-2","tag-the-hindu","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1700975656},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10328"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185009"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185009\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}