{"id":31025,"date":"2018-10-27T11:51:12","date_gmt":"2018-10-27T06:21:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=31025"},"modified":"2018-10-27T11:51:12","modified_gmt":"2018-10-27T06:21:12","slug":"adopting-a-wait-and-watch-approach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/adopting-a-wait-and-watch-approach\/","title":{"rendered":"Adopting a \u2018wait and watch\u2019 approach"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/todays-paper\/tp-opinion\/adopting-a-wait-and-watch-approach\/article22840470.ece\"><b>Adopting a \u2018wait and watch\u2019 approach<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>Context:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Differing preoccupations in both countries, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani\u2019s visit this month was a subdued affair compared to Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s visit to Tehran.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Geographical dynamic:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The future of the Iran- P5+1-European Union (EU) nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA), concluded in 2015 is at stake for it has been given U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s visceral opposition to it.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In addition, Iran is focussed on developments in Syria and Yemen.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For India, dealing with China\u2019s growing footprint in the Indo-Pacific and challenges in its immediate SAARC neighbourhood assume priority.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Uncertainties of JCPOA:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The JCPOA is not a bilateral deal between Iran and the U.S.; other parties are China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K., and the EU.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further, the JCPOA was unanimously supported by the United Nations Security Council (Resolution 2231) enabling Security Council sanctions to be lifted.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem is that the U.S. has imposed multiple and often overlapping sanctions on Iran pertaining not only to nuclear activities but also to missile testing, human rights, and terrorism.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The threat of the U.S. snapback means that third country companies may now attract U.S. sanctions.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This uncertainty has been adversely impacting the sanctions relief since Donald Trump\u2019s election.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Major takeaways from the visits( Iranian President Hassan Rouhani\u2019s visit to India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s visit to Tehran)<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India conveyed its support for the<\/span><b> full and effective implementation of the JCPOA<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><b>the need for strengthening consultations on Afghanistan, and enhancing regional connectivity by building on the Chabahar.<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nine MoUs were signed <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">relating to avoidance of double taxation, visa simplification, cooperation in diverse fields including agriculture, traditional systems of medicine, health and medicine, postal cooperation, trade remedial measures, and a lease contract for an interim period of 18 months for Phase 1 of Chabahar.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The last is a move forward after the<\/span><b> inauguration of the first phase of the Chabahar port in December.<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Earlier in October, Iran had allowed a <\/span><b>wheat shipment of 15,000 tonnes for Afghanistan through Chahbahar.<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There was talk about an<\/span><b> aluminium smelter plant and a urea plant<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to build up Indian investments in the Chabahar free trade zone.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One positive thing is the exploration of a <\/span><b>rupee-rial arrangement which could provide an alternative channel for economic and commercial transactions<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in case U.S. sanctions do kick in, making dollar denominated transactions impossible. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Conclusion:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is clear, therefore, that both countries approached the visit with <\/span><b>modest expectations. <\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The near-term developments in its neighbourhood are a <\/span><b>priority for Tehran even as Mr. Modi tries to find a balance with his stated preference<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to develop closer ties with both the U.S. and Israel. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The uncertainties surrounding the JCPOA provide the justification for <\/span><b>adopting a \u2018wait and watch\u2019 approach.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Adopting a \u2018wait and watch\u2019 approach Context: Differing preoccupations in both countries, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani\u2019s visit this month was a subdued affair compared to Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s visit to Tehran. Geographical dynamic: The future of the Iran- P5+1-European Union (EU) nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA), concluded in 2015 is&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/adopting-a-wait-and-watch-approach\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Adopting a \u2018wait and watch\u2019 approach<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[555],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-test-1","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704708998},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31025\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}