{"id":31644,"date":"2018-10-27T17:04:06","date_gmt":"2018-10-27T11:34:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=31644"},"modified":"2018-10-27T17:04:06","modified_gmt":"2018-10-27T11:34:06","slug":"cautious-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/cautious-optimism\/","title":{"rendered":"Cautious optimism\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/editorial\/economic-survey-cautious-optimism\/article22579781.ece\">Cautious optimism<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Context<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Economic Survey underscores the need to maintain fiscal credibility<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Economic Survey underscores the need to maintain fiscal credibility<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0Economic Survey for 2017-18\u00a0paints the picture of an economy that gives reason for both optimism and caution.<\/p>\n<p><strong>GDP growth could accelerate<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It projects that\u00a0GDP growth could accelerate to 7-7.5% in 2018-19, from 6.75% in the current fiscal, reinstating India as the world\u2019s fastest-growing major economy<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key factors for positive outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>According to Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian, the key factors contributing to the positive prognosis are the reform measures:<\/p>\n<p>I&amp;B Code and GST<\/p>\n<p><strong>Global recovery<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Adding to these domestic enablers are the fair winds of a global recovery that have already lent a lift to overseas demand for India\u2019s goods and services.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rising oil prices need to be taken into account<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>But capitalising on these favourable factors while remaining vigilant to other macroeconomic threats, including a key risk in the form of persistently high oil prices, would require exemplary economic stewardship.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A classic emerging market \u2018sudden stall<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Among the concerns the CEA has flagged is one relating to what the Survey calls \u201ca classic emerging market \u2018sudden stall\u2019 induced by sharp corrections to elevated stock prices.\u201d With Indian stock indices continuing to soar to new highs on an almost daily basis, the Survey warns against \u201csanguineness about its sustainability\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Priorities need to be reviewed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On the fiscal front, the survey contends that the Centre needs to reappraise its priorities.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Avoid setting overly ambitious targets<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The onus, it argues, has to be squarely placed on establishing and maintaining policy credibility. To this end, it argues against \u201csetting overly ambitious targets for consolidation, especially in a pre-election year\u201d that are based on optimistic and unrealistic assumptions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Modest Consolidation<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Instead, it recommends a \u201cmodest consolidation\u201d that would signal a return to the path of calibrated deficit reductions.<\/li>\n<li>In doing so, it appears that the Survey is signalling that the government may have to retain the elbow room to stabilise the GST, complete the recapitalisation exercise and, most crucially, support agriculture.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Climate change crucial<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Devoting an entire chapter to \u2018Climate, Climate Change and Agriculture\u2019, the CEA and his team have stressed on the dangers climate change poses to the outlook for farm growth. With the potential to reduce annual agricultural incomes \u2014 by as much as 20-25% for unirrigated areas \u2014 the Survey calls for a range of mitigation measures including extensive provision of efficient irrigation technologies and a wholesale review of the cereal-centric approach to policy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rapid economic expansion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Citing job creation and education as key priorities, the Survey sets out a plan for rapid economic expansion by recommending that policymakers keep their sights trained on strengthening \u201cthe only two truly sustainable engines \u2014 private investment and exports.\u201d<strong><u>\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cautious optimism\u00a0 Context The Economic Survey underscores the need to maintain fiscal credibility The Economic Survey underscores the need to maintain fiscal credibility The\u00a0Economic Survey for 2017-18\u00a0paints the picture of an economy that gives reason for both optimism and caution. GDP growth could accelerate It projects that\u00a0GDP growth could accelerate to 7-7.5% in 2018-19, from&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/cautious-optimism\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Cautious optimism\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[555],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-test-1","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704676434},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31644\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}