{"id":33349,"date":"2018-10-30T11:55:09","date_gmt":"2018-10-30T06:25:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=33349"},"modified":"2018-10-30T11:55:09","modified_gmt":"2018-10-30T06:25:09","slug":"a-game-of-chicken-in-the-korean-peninsula","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/a-game-of-chicken-in-the-korean-peninsula\/","title":{"rendered":"A game of chicken in the Korean Peninsula\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/lead\/a-game-of-chicken-in-the-korean-peninsula\/article21386428.ece\"><strong>A game of chicken in the Korean Peninsula<\/strong><\/a><strong><u>\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Context <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On North Korea, the world is way past tactical solutions. Only a comprehensive diplomatic solution will work<\/p>\n<p><strong>Event<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>N Korea has successfully tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in a \u201cbreakthrough\u201d that puts the U.S. mainland within the range of its nuclear weapons whose warheads could withstand re-entry to the Earth\u2019s atmosphere<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Read More<\/u><\/strong>: You can read more about the event <a href=\"successfully%20tested%20a%20new%20intercontinental%20ballistic%20missile%20(ICBM)%20on%20Wednesday%20in%20a%20\">here<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Author\u2019s contention: Nuclear crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pyongyang\u2019s neighbours, namely Japan and South Korea, and the international community, the U.S. in particular, have not reconciled to the new reality, provoking a nuclear crisis in the Korean peninsula<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rationality of escalation<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kim Jong-un\u2019s policy of taking on the entire international community is seemingly premised on the classical military strategy of escalating to de-escalate \u2014 to initially escalate to unacceptable levels so as to force one\u2019s adversaries to make concessions in areas they otherwise would not. Being recognised as a nuclear weapon capable state would be the foremost objective; survival of his regime and an eventual removal of sanctions would be the natural consequences of such a recognition<\/p>\n<p><strong>Limited options<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><u>US<\/u><\/strong>: Having exhausted all its strategies, from imposing sanctions to isolating North Korea, Washington has neither any leverage nor is it in a position to make a successful military strike against the country<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>China<\/u><\/strong>: China is not only worried about a lethal nuclear fallout in its neighbourhood and the potential rush of North Korean refugees into its territory but also uneasy about what may otherwise be an excellent solution \u2014 a reunified Korea, something Beijing thinks will undercut its rising regional predominance<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Russia<\/u><\/strong>: Russia, having had clandestine dealings with the North Korean regime in the past, also has no cards to play. And yet, if the unravelling of the Korean peninsula weakens Washington\u2019s standing in the region further, Moscow and Beijing would certainly not mind that<\/p>\n<p><strong>Real Victims<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Author states that the real victims in this case are Japan &amp; South Korea. Seen as arch-rivals by Pyongyang and located in what is arguably the world\u2019s most dangerous neighbourhood, Tokyo and Seoul would be the first to face Kim\u2019s wrath<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Danger to NPT<\/strong>: Going nuclear, in retaliation, would not take too much time or effort for either of these technologically advanced countries. The lack of a firm commitment from Washington on security commitments could potentially prompt them to develop a modest strategic arsenal which would have a domino effect for the region and the rest of the international system. In a self-help world of such kind, the NPT-led non-proliferation regime as we know it would cease to exist<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Systemic crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Author states that at its heart the Korean nuclear crisis reflects a disorder in contemporary international system<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Failure of diplomacy<\/strong>: International\u00a0diplomacy\u00a0has failed in the region. The ability of the great powers to compromise and reach a workable consensus to deal with global crises seems to have considerably reduced especially with the arrival of Mr. Trump and the assertion of China and Russia. What is even more worrying is this: the failure of the great powers to arrive at a workable consensus in crisis situations is perhaps a sign of the times to come<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mr Trump\u2019s strategy<\/strong>: The current crisis is further intensified by the deal-breaking tendencies of Mr. Trump. For instance, his administration\u2019s tirade against the Iran nuclear deal, the end result of long, arduous negotiations, is sending out all the wrong signals to the international community<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Isolating states doesn\u2019t work<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Author points out that isolating states that \u201cmisbehave\u201d does not resolve conflicts<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Be it Pakistan, Iran or North Korea, isolating states in the international system can only further complicate existing crises<\/li>\n<li><strong>Joint international effort<\/strong>: The reason why we have been able to restrain the development of Iranian nuclear weapons is precisely because the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, plus Germany) reached a historic nuclear deal in 2015 despite pressure from within the U.S. and countries such as Israel to use force against Tehran<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Had it not been for this deal, we would have had quite a mess in our neighbourhood today<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disarmament platitudes of N5<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Author states that the N5\u2019s lack of progress on their disarmament commitments have eroded the faith of the nuclear have-nots in the global nuclear order. In an indirect but relevant way, such erosion of a normative global order has contributed to the North Korean crisis<\/p>\n<p><strong>What should be done?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Author states that,<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>A sustained diplomatic solution<\/strong>: We are way past tactical solutions, and, therefore, only a comprehensive, sustained and diplomatic solution will work, though the result of which is uncertain, and the intent for which is non-existent among the great powers at this point. However, if indeed Kim is \u201cescalating to deescalate\u201d, Pyongyang might be open to such engagement especially since it has now gone beyond being forcibly disarmed. Moreover, for Kim, talking itself would constitute a form of recognition for his regime<\/li>\n<li><strong>Revival of Six party talks<\/strong>:The operational aspect of this approach would involve taking on board North Korea\u2019s historical grievances, involving the regional powers including China and South Korea to reach out to Kim, and reviving the dormant Six Party Talks at the earliest. Revival of the Six Party talks is important precisely because entrusting China and or Russia to solely deal with North Korea would be unwise. Moreover, multilateral engagement would also prevent anyone from engaging in underhand dealings with Pyongyang<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Way forward<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Author states that rather than trying to disarm Pyongyang with impractical military solutions we need to consider ways of living with this new reality<\/p>\n<p><strong>Six party talks<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The six-party talks were a series of multilateral negotiations held intermittently since 2003 and attended by China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States for the purpose of dismantling North Korea\u2019s nuclear program. The talks were hosted in Beijing and chaired by China. North Korea decided to no longer participate in the six party process in 2009. In subsequent years, other participants, notably China, have called periodically for a resumption of the process.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A game of chicken in the Korean Peninsula\u00a0 Context On North Korea, the world is way past tactical solutions. Only a comprehensive diplomatic solution will work Event N Korea has successfully tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in a \u201cbreakthrough\u201d that puts the U.S. mainland within the range of its nuclear weapons whose warheads&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/a-game-of-chicken-in-the-korean-peninsula\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">A game of chicken in the Korean Peninsula\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[555],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-test-1","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704739179},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33349"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33349\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}