{"id":336534,"date":"2025-05-13T14:15:36","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T08:45:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/?p=336534"},"modified":"2025-05-13T15:15:46","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T09:45:46","slug":"india-pakistan-relations-complexity-conflict-cooperation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/india-pakistan-relations-complexity-conflict-cooperation\/","title":{"rendered":"India-Pakistan Relations: Complexity, Conflict & Cooperation"},"content":{"rendered":"

India and Pakistan, two South Asian nuclear-armed neighbors, <\/b>share a fraught relationship rooted in the Partition of 1947. While the two nuclear-armed neighbors have <\/span>fought four wars and multiple skirmishes<\/b>, their relations are also shaped by deep historical grievances, strategic rivalries, and sporadic peace efforts.
\n<\/span>In the latest tragic reminder of the enduring security threat, the <\/span>2025 Pahalgam terror attack<\/b> resulted in the deaths of civilians and injuries. The incident, allegedly perpetrated by Pakistan-backed groups like <\/span>The Resistance Front (TRF)<\/b>, has once again spotlighted the volatile dynamics between the two countries, particularly on the issue of <\/span>cross-border terrorism<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Table of Content<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Key Issues in India-Pakistan Relations: Evolution<\/a>
\nMultilateral Groupings Involving India and Pakistan<\/a>
\nPresent Dynamics and Shifts<\/a>
\nWhat are the Threats and Challenges Posed by Pakistan?<\/a>
\nWhat are the Global Powers Policies Toward India-Pakistan?<\/a>
\nWay Forward: \u201cA Unique Blend of Light and Tight Approach\u201d<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/a>Key Issues in India-Pakistan Relations: Evolution<\/span>:<\/b><\/h2>\n
    \n
  1. Cross-Border Terrorism: <\/b>From the 1989 Kashmir insurgency to the 2001 Parliament attack, 2008 Mumbai attacks, Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and now Pahalgam (2025), terrorism remains the biggest concern. <\/span>ORF classifies Pakistan\u2019s<\/b> terror infrastructure as <\/span>“state-enabled non-state actors.”. <\/b>Pakistan has long been providing safe havens to terror groups like <\/span>LeT, JeM, and Hizbul Mujahideen<\/b>. The <\/span>2001 Indian Parliament attack<\/b>, <\/span>2008 Mumbai attacks<\/b>, <\/span>2016 Uri attack<\/b>, and <\/span>2019 Pulwama attack<\/b> are all linked to Pakistani-based terror outfits. <\/span>E.g. A 2023 report<\/b> by <\/span>Brookings Institution<\/b> identified Pakistan\u2019s <\/span>“proxy war” strategy in Kashmir<\/b> as a major destabilizing factor in South Asia.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Kashmir Dispute: <\/b>The core territorial dispute stems from Pakistan\u2019s claim over J&K, while India asserts its legal accession. Post-2019 abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan downgraded diplomatic ties and internationalized the issue at various forums.<\/span> While India asserts it as a domestic issue, the <\/span>UN Human Rights Council<\/b> has occasionally flagged concerns over human rights in the region<\/span>. Shyam Saran (ex-Foreign Secretary), \u201cPakistan treats Kashmir as the keystone of its identity\u201d and C. Raja Mohan calls it Pakistan\u2019s Kashmir fixation \u201cstrategic inertia rooted in ideological rigidity.\u201d<\/b><\/li>\n
  3. Border and LoC Ceasefire Violations:<\/b> Over <\/span>5,000 ceasefire violations in 2020<\/b> alone, according to MEA. While the 2021 reaffirmation brought temporary calm, violations resumed in 2023. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Water Disputes under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT): Treaty Signed in 1960<\/b> under World Bank auspices. India has raised concerns post-Uri attack (2016) about revisiting the treaty. Pakistan raised objections to <\/span>India\u2019s Kishanganga and Ratle Hydropower Projects<\/b>. India invoked Article XII of the treaty to renegotiate terms in 2023.<\/span> World Bank’s<\/b> urged both sides to resolve differences via neutral expert arbitration.<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. Trade and Economic Relations:<\/b> Post-2019, Pakistan suspended bilateral trade.<\/span> A report by <\/span>CUTS International<\/b> (2021) estimates potential trade loss of billion annually due to non-cooperation.<\/span><\/li>\n
  6. Religious Radicalization: Export of extremism<\/b> through LeT, JeM, and D-Company operate from Pakistani soil.<\/span> UNSCR Reports<\/b>, highlight proliferation of madrassas and extremist hubs.<\/span><\/li>\n
  7. Nuclear Brinkmanship and Arms Race: <\/b>Both nations maintain nuclear arsenals and credible deterrents.<\/span> Post-Balakot (2019), India and Pakistan came dangerously close to conflict escalation, as noted in <\/span>RAND Corporation<\/b>\u2019s 2021 assessment.<\/span><\/li>\n
  8. Afghanistan, Narcotics and Drone Warfare: <\/b>India supports democratic stability, while Pakistan has been accused of covertly aiding Taliban factions.<\/span> USIP Report<\/b> (2023) said India fears increased terror influx via Afghanistan post-Taliban resurgence. India has close proximity to <\/span>Death Triangle (Formally Golden Triangle)<\/b> which increases the threat of narcotics and terrorism as seen in drone-based narcotics and arms drops in Punjab.<\/span><\/li>\n
  9. <\/b> Cyber Warfare and Disinformation: <\/b>Cyber espionage by Pakistani actors like <\/span>APT36<\/b> targeting Indian defense and research.<\/span> CERT-IN reports several Pakistan-origin intrusions.<\/span><\/li>\n
  10. Prisoners and Fishermen: <\/b>300+ fishermen from both sides remain jailed.<\/span> Cases of spies (e.g., Kulbhushan Jadhav) worsen mutual distrust.<\/span> International Court of Justice (ICJ)<\/b> ruled in Jadhav’s favor in 2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    <\/a><\/b>Multilateral Groupings Involving India and Pakistan<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n
      \n
    1. SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation): <\/b>India and Pakistan are founding members. SAARC summits are often stalled due to bilateral tensions. Paralysed since 2016 after the Uri attack. <\/span>C. Raja Mohan<\/b> observed that \u201cSAARC has been held hostage to bilateral tensions.<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO): <\/b>Both are full members since 2017.<\/span> Pakistan has blocked Indian proposals and boycotted certain events. India skipped SCO meetings in 2024 due to provocations.<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. UN and Related Agencies: <\/b>Pakistan raises Kashmir issue frequently; India counters by stressing non-interference.<\/span> India\u2019s Stand<\/b>: Consistently maintains Kashmir is a bilateral issue under the <\/span>Shimla Agreement (1972)<\/b>.<\/span><\/li>\n
    4. World Trade Organization (WTO): <\/b>Ongoing disputes over MFN status.<\/span> India also withdrew Pakistan\u2019s MFN status in 2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      <\/a>Present Dynamics and Shifts<\/span>:<\/b><\/h2>\n
        \n
      1. Union Government<\/b> follows a <\/span>“terror and talks cannot go together” doctrine<\/b>.<\/span><\/li>\n
      2. Operation Sindoor and Balakot airstrike (2019)<\/b> marked a shift towards pre-emptive action and direct response to the terrorist attack.<\/span><\/li>\n
      3. Pakistan’s internal economic crisis (USD reserves at critical levels as per IMF 2024 report) restricts its military adventurism.<\/span><\/li>\n
      4. US withdrawal from Afghanistan<\/b> has left Pakistan more regionally isolated.<\/span><\/li>\n
      5. Think tank <\/span>Carnegie India<\/b> argues that the India-Pakistan equation is now less central to global diplomacy.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        <\/a>What are the Threats and Challenges Posed by Pakistan?<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n
          \n
        1. State-Sponsored Terrorism: <\/b>ISI\u2019s deep links with groups like LeT and JeM are documented by the <\/span>FATF<\/b>, which kept Pakistan on the grey list until 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n
        2. Cyber Espionage and Propaganda: CERT-In<\/b> flagged multiple attempts of phishing and propaganda campaigns from Pakistani IPs targeting Indian defence personnel.<\/span><\/li>\n
        3. Smuggling and Narco-Terrorism: <\/b>Punjab Police has reported a surge in <\/span>drone-based smuggling<\/b> of arms and heroin from across the border.<\/span><\/li>\n
        4. Border Infiltration: <\/b>IB and LoC infiltration attempts remain persistent. BSF recorded <\/span>over 200 infiltration attempts<\/b> in 2023 alone.<\/span><\/li>\n
        5. Strategic Alliance with China: <\/b>The <\/span>China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)<\/b> runs through PoK, challenging India\u2019s sovereignty.<\/span> Brookings<\/b> warns of a <\/span>\u201ctwo-front\u201d security risk<\/b> for India from the <\/span>Sino-Pak axis<\/b>.<\/span><\/li>\n
        6. Propaganda Warfare<\/b>: Pakistan’s ISPR targets international narratives (via social media).<\/span><\/li>\n
        7. Nuclear Posturing<\/b>: Tactical nukes threaten escalation.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          <\/a><\/b>What are the Global Powers Policies Toward India-Pakistan?<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n
            \n
          1. United States: <\/b>Views India as a strategic partner under <\/span>Indo-Pacific Strategy<\/b>.<\/span> Maintains defence ties with Pakistan (e.g., 2022 F-16 upgrade aid) to keep leverage.<\/span> Carnegie Endowment<\/b> noted U.S. \u201cwants to prevent escalation while balancing both ties.\u201d <\/span>Ashley Tellis<\/b> calls, US policy aims to <\/span>“contain chaos in Pakistan while investing in India.”<\/b><\/li>\n
          2. China: <\/b>Strong strategic partner of Pakistan. China is <\/span>all-weather ally of Pakistan (CPEC, military aid) and supports Pakistan on Kashmir in UNSC. <\/b>Uses Pakistan to counterbalance India\u2019s regional influence.<\/span> Engaged in infrastructure and military cooperation via <\/span>CPEC<\/b>, which India opposes.<\/span><\/li>\n
          3. Russia: <\/b>Traditionally close to India, but now engages both countries, increasing ties with Pakistan in defense <\/span>(Mi-35, joint drills). <\/b>Supports <\/span>anti-terrorism under SCO; has recently conducted trilateral exercises<\/b> with both India and Pakistan separately.<\/span><\/li>\n
          4. OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation): <\/b>Supports Pakistan\u2019s stance on Kashmir, though many Gulf nations now have improved ties with India (e.g., UAE, Saudi Arabia).<\/span><\/li>\n
          5. Gulf Countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia): <\/b>Brokered 2021 ceasefire.<\/span> UAE plays economic neutral; strong trade with both.<\/span> Brookings Doha Center<\/b> noted UAE’s role in Indo-Pak thaw.<\/span><\/li>\n
          6. European Union: <\/b>Concerned with human rights in Kashmir, supports bilateral dialogue and is a major trade partner for both countries<\/span>.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            <\/a>Way Forward: \u201cA Unique Blend of Light and Tight Approach\u201d<\/span>:<\/b><\/h2>\n

            1. Hard Strategy: Asserting Deterrence and National Security: <\/b>Hard strategies are coercive tools used to safeguard sovereignty and deter hostile actions by Pakistan, especially in light of state-sponsored terrorism and cross-border aggression.<\/p>\n