{"id":34694,"date":"2018-10-31T12:54:00","date_gmt":"2018-10-31T07:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=34694"},"modified":"2018-10-31T12:54:00","modified_gmt":"2018-10-31T07:24:00","slug":"mapping-the-not-so-normal-monsoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/mapping-the-not-so-normal-monsoon\/","title":{"rendered":"Mapping the not-so-normal monsoon:\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/todays-paper\/tp-business\/mapping-the-not-so-normal-monsoon\/article19825298.ece\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mapping the not-so-normal monsoon<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Context<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The retreating south-west monsoon for 2017 has turned out to be <\/span><b>normal <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">for the second consecutive year. But there are various grey factors attached to the normal monsoon this year.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>What is considered normal rainfall?<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indian Meteorological Department deems a season \u2018normal\u2019 if the all-India quantum of rain falls within a<\/span><b> 10% range of its long-period average of 887.5 mm.<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India has received a total<\/span><b> 841.3 millimetres (mm)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of rain in the south-west monsoon season from June 1 to September 30 this year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 2017 monsoon <\/span><b>fell short<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of the number only <\/span><b>by 5%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. In fact, the cumulative rainfall numbers this year aren\u2019t very different from 2016 when the country recorded 862 mm of rain.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>What effect does a good rainfall have on crops?<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the year 2016-17, India harvested a record crop of cereals (252.7 million tonnes) and managed a quantum jump in its output of both pulses (16.3 million tonnes in 2015 to 22.9 million tonnes in 2016) and oilseeds (25 to 32 million tonnes).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A good harvesting like that of 2016 &#8211; 17 contributed to a significant bump-up in the agriculture sector of the GDP which grew 4.9% in FY17 compared with 0.7% in FY16.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The<\/span><b> spatial and the temporal distribution of rains<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> becomes the main reason behind making and breaking crop prospects. The 2017 monsoon on this score was unusual.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>What are the expectation for the year 2017-18?<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expecting a repetition of the impressive performance from last year is not realistic.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2016, the monsoon started slow, but picked up pace in the latter half of the season. But this year\u2019s monsoon has behaved in exactly the opposite fashion.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Year 2017 started with <\/span><b>excess rains<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of about 4% and 2% against normal seasonal patterns in June and July, the months of August and September have seen all-India rainfall fall <\/span><b>12-13% short <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">of normal levels.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Good rains in the months of June and July may have contributed to <\/span><b>good sowing<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>coverage<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of the <\/span><b>kharif crops<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. But deficit rains in August and September could impact the eventual output by pruning crop yields.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rainfall in the last two months of the south-west monsoon prescribe the <\/span><b>reservoir storage<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>soil moisture<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, setting the tone for the plantation of the winter crops.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The kharif crop, the rabi season has been equally important to the country\u2019s agricultural prospects in recent years. Rabi output often matches or even exceeds the kharif output.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oilseeds are also predominantly winter crops. Therefore, dry spells in the latter half of this monsoon, taken with deficient rains in key rabi growing regions, can make for less than rosy rabi prospects.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Why is weather forecasting important?<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The purpose of a weather forecast is to provide as accurate as possible prediction of what the weather will be like in the near future.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weather forecasting is important to most aspects of day to day life, including aviation, boating, other modes of transportation, farming, tourism, sports, etc.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weather is a natural phenomenon and it can only be studied using predictions based on regular pattern.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In absence of accurate weather forecasts there are <\/span><b>high chances of damage to life and property. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The certainty helps people to be aware of the calamities approaching.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The more warning people have the better they can prepare and the least likely they are to die due to such natural disasters.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pilots need to know the weather to plan their flights, sailors need to know what the weather will be like to plan their activities, and farmers need to know what the weather will be like to help them plan watering, fertilizer and pesticide application, and harvest activities, to name a few.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>India Meteorological Department (IMD) AND IT\u2019S FUNCTIONING<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indian meteorological department also referred to as MET department is an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is headquartered at Pune and operates observation centres at various other places.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>INDIAN SATELLITES INVOLVED IN WEATHER FORECAST<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Weather satellites:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are two basic types of weather satellites: those in geostationary orbits and those in polar orbits.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b><i>Geostationary satellites<\/i><\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: these satellites orbit very high above the earth at an altitude of 35,800 km and take the same time to orbit the earth as the earth takes to revolve once. From earth, therefore, the satellite appears to stay still always above the same region all the time.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These satellites give \u2018real-time\u2019 images and hence, a series of photographs from these satellites can be displayed in a sequence to show cloud movement.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b><i>Polar orbit satellites<\/i><\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: This type of satellite orbits in a path that closely follows the Earth\u2019s meridian lines, passing over the north and south poles once each revolution. These circle at a much lower altitude at about 850 km. This means that they can photograph clouds from a much closer level and provide more detailed information about violent storms and cloud systems.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Uses:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Radiation measurement from earth surface<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fishermen can find out valuable information about the temperature of the sea from measurements of these satellites.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Infrared sensors on satellites can monitor crop conditions, areas of deforestation and regions of drought.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Satellites can detect volcanic eruptions and the motion of ash clouds.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ice-mapping, snow storms in the Arctic and Antarctica and the mountain chains-Monitoring of Global Warming<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Observation of Auroras<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Water and air pollution can be pinpointed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oil spills can be detected.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Weather Satellites in India (those in service):<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">INSAT system: the Indian National Satellite system was commissioned with the launch of INSAT-1B in 1983 and ushered in a revolution in India\u2019s television, radio and meterological broadcasting. Of the 24 satellites so far launched, 11 are still in operation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">INSAT-3C<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">INSAT-3D<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">INSAT-3E<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">KALPANA-1<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MEGHA-TROPIQUE<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>SYSTEMS INTERFERING WITH THE INDIAN MONSOON<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>El-nino: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">El-Nino is the warm phase of the El-nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO and is associated with a band of warm water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. It is accompanied by high pressure in the western pacific and low pressure in the eastern pacific.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>El-nino modoki:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> It<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical pacific. Conventional El-Nino is associated with strong anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial pacific while El Nino Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical pacific.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Indian ocean dipole:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Indian Ocean Dipole or the Indian nino is an irregular oscillation of the sea-surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and colder than the eastern part of the ocean. Monsoon in India is generally affected by the temperatures between the Bay of Bengal in the east and the Arabian sea in the west.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mapping the not-so-normal monsoon:\u00a0 Context The retreating south-west monsoon for 2017 has turned out to be normal for the second consecutive year. But there are various grey factors attached to the normal monsoon this year. What is considered normal rainfall? Indian Meteorological Department deems a season \u2018normal\u2019 if the all-India quantum of rain falls within&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/mapping-the-not-so-normal-monsoon\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Mapping the not-so-normal monsoon:\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[555],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-test-1","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704577238},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34694\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}