{"id":35100,"date":"2018-10-31T15:13:57","date_gmt":"2018-10-31T09:43:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=35100"},"modified":"2018-10-31T15:13:57","modified_gmt":"2018-10-31T09:43:57","slug":"reading-the-tea-leaves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/reading-the-tea-leaves\/","title":{"rendered":"Reading the tea leaves:\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/todays-paper\/tp-opinion\/reading-the-tea-leaves\/article19705842.ece\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reading the tea leaves<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Context:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The emerging India-Japan alignment sets the stage for the reordering of the Asian strategic landscape<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Two trend lines<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The shift of the geopolitical centre of gravity from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region and the rise of China. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Most of the rivalries are being played out in the crowded geopolitical space of the Indo-Pacific, and Asian economies now account for more than half of global GDP and becoming larger in coming years.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>China\u2019s policy:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to China\u2019s President Xi Jinping\u2019s \u2018two guides\u2019 policy announced in February, China should guide \u2018the shaping of the new world order\u2019 and safeguarding \u2018international security\u2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China has suggested \u2018a new type of great power relations\u2019 to the U.S.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Its assertiveness in the East China Sea with Japan and in the South China Sea with its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) neighbours sends a signal that while multipolarity may be desirable in a global order, in Asia, China is the predominant power and must be treated as such.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During the past few years, it has set about creating a new set of institutions (the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank) and launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to create a new trading infrastructure that reflects China\u2019s centrality as the largest trading nation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In addition to Gwadar, China is now converting the supply facility at Djibouti into a full-fledged military base.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Accelerating the trends:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By invoking \u2018America first\u2019 repeatedly, President Donald Trump has made it clear that the U.S. considers the burden of leading the global order too onerous. American allies, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, are nervous about Mr. Trump\u2019s harangues that they are enjoying the benefits of the U.S. security umbrella on the cheap.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recent nuclear and long-range missile tests by North Korea have added to South Korean and Japanese anxieties.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Japan has been particularly rattled by the two missiles fired across Hokkaido.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another significant development was the Doklam stand-off between India and China .<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Tussle areas:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Differences with China did not begin with Doklam.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It was preceded by the stapled visa issue for Indians belonging to Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, growing incidents of incursions along the disputed boundary, blocking of India\u2019s bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group last year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Preventing the inclusion of Masood Azhar from being designated as a terrorist by the UN Security Council by exercising a veto.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The gap between India and China has grown, both in economic and military terms, and with it has emerged a more assertive China.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Critical dimension to the \u2018global partnership\u2019 between India and Japan:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is against this backdrop that Japanese Prime Minister Shinz\u014d Abe\u2019s visit to India took place last week.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The relationship became a \u2018Special Strategic and Global Partnership\u2019, Japan was invited to join in the Malabar naval exercises and a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation was concluded.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A singular achievement was the conclusion of the agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy last year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This was a sensitive issue for Japan given the widespread anti-nuclear sentiment (though Japan enjoys the U.S. nuclear umbrella) and (misplaced) faith in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To deepen strategic understanding, the two sides initiated a 2+2 Dialogue involving the Foreign and Defence Ministries in 2010.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A memorandum on enhancing defence and technology\/security cooperation was signed and talks on acquiring the amphibious maritime surveillance ShinMaywa US-2i began in 2013.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trilateral dialogue involving both the U.S. and Japan and covering strategic issues was elevated to ministerial level in 2014.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Japanese participation in the Malabar exercises, suspended because of Chinese protests, was restored in 2015.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Once the agreement for the 12 US-2i aircraft is concluded with a follow-up acquisition as part of Make in India, the strategic relationship will begin to acquire critical mass.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The strategic partnership needs stronger economic ties.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today, India-Japan trade languishes at around $15 billion, a quarter of trade with China while Japan-China trade is around $300 billion.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed rail corridor is more than symbolism, in demonstrating that high-cost Japanese technology is viable in developing countries and that India has the absorption capacity to master it.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another major initiative is the recently launched Asia-Africa Growth Corridor to build connectivity for which Japan has committed $30 billion and India $10 billion.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reading the tea leaves:\u00a0 Context: The emerging India-Japan alignment sets the stage for the reordering of the Asian strategic landscape Two trend lines The shift of the geopolitical centre of gravity from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region and the rise of China. Most of the rivalries are being played out in the crowded geopolitical&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/reading-the-tea-leaves\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Reading the tea leaves:\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[555],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-test-1","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704132772},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35100\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}