{"id":35458,"date":"2018-10-31T17:40:46","date_gmt":"2018-10-31T12:10:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=35458"},"modified":"2018-10-31T17:40:46","modified_gmt":"2018-10-31T12:10:46","slug":"the-trump-discontinuity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/the-trump-discontinuity\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trump discontinuity:\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/opinion\/columns\/the-trump-discontinuity-us-president-policy-on-afghanistan-4810529\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Trump discontinuity<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Context<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Delhi wonder if Washington has the political will to carry through the promised pressure on Pakistan to stop hosting terror sanctuaries on its soil.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>What\u2019s there for India in the bag?<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For Delhi, it is about seizing the opportunity opened up by Trump\u2019s new policy to raise India\u2019s profile in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Delhi welcomed \u201cPresident Trump\u2019s determination to enhance efforts to overcome the challenges facing Afghanistan and confronting issues of safe havens and other forms of cross-border support enjoyed by terrorists.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In his speech Trump had demanded that Pakistan\u2019s support to cross-border terror \u201cwill have to change\u201d and \u201cchange immediately\u201d.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Trump\u2019s affirmation that India ought to do more, Delhi pointed to India\u2019s significant past efforts to promote economic reconstruction in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It added that India \u201cwill continue these efforts, including in partnership with other countries\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Why should India be cautious?<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India\u2019s positive response does not mean that Delhi is unaware of the enduring impulses in Washington to forgive Rawalpindi\u2019s transgressions in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whatever the US president might say, there are large sections of the US deep state that caution against a radical shift in US policy towards Pakistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the US has tolerated this for the last 17 years, Delhi has good reason to be cautious in its assessment of what the Trump Administration can compel the Pakistan Army to do today.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In any case, what we heard is a mere speech. Turning the words of that speech into actions of the ground will not be easy.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While skepticism is healthy, cynicism that ignores the changes taking place in the US regional policy is not.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After all, Trump has said something about Pakistan in public that his predecessors were not willing to. If the previous administration acquiesced in Pakistan\u2019s double dealing on terror, Trump has threatened Rawalpindi with consequences if it does not change its behaviour.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>India\u2019s role in Afghanistan<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is equally important for Delhi to note the shift in Washington\u2019s thinking on the Indian role in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When it came to Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Bush Administration drew a red line for India. It cautioned Delhi against too large a role in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Obama Administration began with the proposition that the answer to Afghanistan might lie in promoting a resolution of Pakistan\u2019s Kashmir dispute with India. It required intensive diplomacy from India to fend off these initiatives.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India needs to appreciate the most important change in US Afghan policy.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite all the talk of playing the China card against the US, Pakistan is acutely conscious of the dangers of being treated as a rogue state by the West.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It&#8217;s thundering silence in response to the Trump speech, suggests that Rawalpindi has chosen to avoid, for now, a public argument with Washington.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rawalpindi will offer some cooperation in countering terror and make new promises to bring the Taliban to the table. It will urge US pressure on India to start talks on Kashmir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>What should India focus on?<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delhi\u2019s current emphasis must be on taking advantage of the Trump discontinuity in the American policy towards the Subcontinent. A positive Indian approach would involve three elements \u2014 economic, security and diplomatic.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India must upgrade up its economic diplomacy in Afghanistan to bring immediate benefits to Kabul amidst the deteriorating conditions in the country.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delhi must step up security cooperation with Afghanistan, especially in the training of its police and armed forces and intelligence sharing.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the diplomatic front, India must counter the emerging argument that Trump\u2019s new approach will intensify the \u201cIndo-Pak rivalry\u201d in Afghanistan and the old one that Kashmir holds the key to peace in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delhi must remind the world of India\u2019s commitment to regional cooperation with Afghanistan and Pakistan, in an atmosphere free of terrorism.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump\u2019s new Afghan strategy could be a potential game-changer for South Asia or a brief exception to the familiar pattern of US-Pak relations.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While recognizing the potential shadow between Trump\u2019s words and deeds, Delhi must bet on its own engagement that can impact future outcomes in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Trump discontinuity:\u00a0 Context New Delhi wonder if Washington has the political will to carry through the promised pressure on Pakistan to stop hosting terror sanctuaries on its soil. What\u2019s there for India in the bag? For Delhi, it is about seizing the opportunity opened up by Trump\u2019s new policy to raise India\u2019s profile in&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/the-trump-discontinuity\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The Trump discontinuity:\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[555],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-test-1","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704842679},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35458","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35458"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35458\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35458"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35458"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}