{"id":357296,"date":"2026-03-06T19:16:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T13:46:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/?p=357296"},"modified":"2026-03-06T19:25:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T13:55:06","slug":"fertility-rate-in-india-explained-pointwise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/fertility-rate-in-india-explained-pointwise\/","title":{"rendered":"Fertility Rate in India &#8211; Explained Pointwise"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The falling fertility rate in India is dominating the demographic shifts debate in India. According to a Lancet study, the fertility rate in India <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">may dip to 1.29 by 2050<\/span>, which will be <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">far lower than the replacement rate of 2.1<\/span>.<br \/>\nIn Southern states in India, like <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Kerala<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Tamil Nadu<\/span>, the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Total Fertility Rate<\/span> (TFR) is already below 1.9. This has led to emerging concerns in South India <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">regarding the fall in fertility rates<\/span>, ageing population and their decreased representation. Recently, the Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu announced that his government is working on a <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">law to incentivize families to have more children<\/span>.<br \/>\nWhile the declining fertility rate has its own advantages, the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">fertility rate dropping below the replacement rate<\/span> has some <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">perilous consequences<\/span>. However, raising fertility in poorer states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh will increase the risk of exacerbation of socioeconomic challenges.<\/p>\n<p>In this article we will delve into the issue of declining fertility rate in India.<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; border-style: solid;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 100%; text-align: center;\"><strong>Table of Content<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 100%;\"><a href=\"#toc1\">What is Total Fertility Rate (TFR)? What is the trend of falling fertility rate in India?\u00a0<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"#toc2\">What are the reasons for falling fertility rate in India?<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"#toc3\">What is the significance of falling fertility rates for India?<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"#toc4\">What are the concerns with the fertility rates falling below the replacement levels?<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"#toc5\">What Should be the way Forward?<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"color: #000000; text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a id=\"toc1\"><\/a>What is Total Fertility Rate (TFR)? What is the trend of falling fertility rate in India?\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Fertility Rate\/TFR:<\/strong>\u00a0Total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman<\/span> (15-49 years) in her lifetime.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Replacement level fertility rate:<\/strong>\u00a0A TFR of 2.1 is known as replacement level fertility rate. It is the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">level of fertility<\/span> at which a <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">population exactly replaces itself<\/span> from one generation to the next.<\/li>\n<li><strong>TFR&lt; Replacement level fertility rate:<\/strong>\u00a0TFR lower than <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"color: #333333;\">2.1 children per woman indicates that<\/span> a generation is not producing enough children to replace itself<\/span>. This eventually leads to an outright reduction in population.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Data Pointing to falling fertility rate in India:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong> National Family Health Survey (NFHS 2019-21) Data:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>India\u2019s Total Fertility Rates (TFR) has reached <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">2.0 at the national level<\/span>. The total fertility rate, was as high as 6 or more in the 1950s.<\/li>\n<li>The TFR is at <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">1.6 in urban areas<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">2.1 in rural India<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Bihar<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Meghalaya<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Uttar Pradesh<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Jharkhand<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Manipur<\/span> remain the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">only states with fertility rates above the replacement level<\/span> and the national average.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<table style=\"height: 297px; width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; border-style: solid;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 297px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 50%; height: 297px;\">\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_289559\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-289559\" style=\"width: 472px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-289559 \" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Urban-rural-gap.png?resize=472%2C413&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Rural Urban TFR\" width=\"472\" height=\"413\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Urban-rural-gap.png?w=630&amp;ssl=1 630w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Urban-rural-gap.png?resize=300%2C262&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 472px) 100vw, 472px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-289559\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source- Livemint<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 50%; height: 297px;\">\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_289560\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-289560\" style=\"width: 414px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-289560 \" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Challenges-in-population.png?resize=414%2C377&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Challenges in Population\" width=\"414\" height=\"377\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Challenges-in-population.png?w=627&amp;ssl=1 627w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Challenges-in-population.png?resize=300%2C273&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 414px) 100vw, 414px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-289560\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source- Livemint<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>India&#8217;s TFR which was <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">6.18 in 1950<\/span>, reduced to\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">4.60 in 1980<\/span> and further declined to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">1.91 in 2021<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li>Worldwide also, the TFR has more than halved in the last 70 years, from around <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">five children for each woman in 1950<\/span> to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">2.2 children in 2021<\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key Data of the Report of MoH&amp;FW:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the 2021 Census delayed, the latest population projections from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare show a <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">rapidly ageing population across India<\/span>. According to the projections, the percentage of people aged 60 and above is expected to have a significant rise in Southern states like <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Andhra Pradesh<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Kerala<\/span>, where the fertility rate dropped earlier than in Northern states like <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Uttar Pradesh<\/span>.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>India&#8217;s population increase:<\/strong>\u00a0India\u2019s population will grow by <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">31.1 crore<\/span> between 2011 and 2036, out of which <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">17 crore people will be added by just five north Indian states<\/span> of Bihar, UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Low contribution to population increase by Southern States:<\/strong>\u00a0The Southern states of <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">AP<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Karnataka<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Kerala<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Telangana<\/span>, and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Tamil Nadu<\/span>, will contribute only <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">2.9 crore<\/span>, or <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">9%<\/span> to the population increase.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Increase in Share of Elderly population in India:<\/strong>\u00a0The elderly population (60+) will double from <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">10 crore in 2011<\/span> to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">23 crore by 2036<\/span>. The share of elderly will rise from <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">8.4%<\/span> to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">14.9%<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Regional Differences in Ageing Trends:<\/strong>\u00a0In Southern state of Kerala, the elderly population will be <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">25% of the states&#8217; population by 2036<\/span>. While the states like UP will remain younger, with elderly making up <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">12% of the population of the state by 2036<\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"color: #000000; text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a id=\"toc2\"><\/a>What are the reasons for falling fertility rate in India?<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Family Planning and Welfare Programmes introduced post independence: <\/strong>There has been positive impact of the family welfare programmes, which included <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">maternal and child health-related cash transfer inducements to reduce fertility<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Improvement of Maternal and Child Health: <\/strong>Another major reason for falling fertility rate in India, is the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">substantial decline in the infant mortality<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">maternal mortality rates<\/span>. The decline in these rates guaranteed child survival and made small families a norm in India.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Behavioral Changes:<\/strong>\u00a0The behavioural changes due to campaigns such as &#8216;<em><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">hum do<\/span> <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">humaare do<\/span><\/em>&#8216; and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">use of contraceptives<\/span> have changed the mindset of the Indian population and nudged them to reduce fertility rates.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Reversal of intergenerational flow of wealth:<\/strong>\u00a0With the reversal of intergenerational flow of wealth, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">parents do not receive much benefit from their children the way they used to receive<\/span>. This has influenced their decision to have an additional child that would involve a substantial cost of bringing them up.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Women empowerment:<\/strong>\u00a0The <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">rise of female literacy<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">women\u2019s participation in the workforce<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">career consciousness<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">financial returns<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">economic independence<\/span> have empowered Indian women to reconsider of the option of having a second child.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Choice of adoption:<\/strong>\u00a0There is a significant increase in the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">exercise of choice of adoption over child-rearing<\/span>, which has contributed to a decrease in the fertility rates in India.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"color: #000000; text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a id=\"toc3\"><\/a>What is the significance of falling fertility rates for India?<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Improved labour productivity leading to accelerated economic growth: <\/strong>The decline in population growth would <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">increase the amount of capital resources and infrastructure available in per capita terms<\/span>. A young skilled workforce would improve labour productivity, leading to accelerated economic growth.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Better employment conditions for workers:<\/strong>\u00a0A lower working force population will result in <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">improved working conditions<\/span> and<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"> higher wages<\/span> for the workers. It would also lead to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">elimination of wage discrimination for migrant workers<\/span> and the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">mitigation of their security concerns<\/span> in the industrially developed states (southern states, Maharashtra, Gujarat), that have low fertility rates.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Enhanced participation of women in workforce: <\/strong>With decline in fertility rate, less time is needed for childcare, which enhances the participation of women in workforce. <strong>For ex- <\/strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Improved share of women in MNREGA employment in Southern States<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Improvement in quality of Social service deliveries:<\/strong> Falling fertility rate improves the educational, health and skills of Indian population due to<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"> increase in the per capita availability of social sector resources and infrastructure<\/span> like schools, colleges and hospitals.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Reduced pressure on environment and agriculture:<\/strong>\u00a0The<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"> impact of environmental problems<\/span> such as global warming, desertification, loss of farmland, pollution and use of non-renewable materials <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">will be reduced due to decline in population<\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"color: #000000; text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a id=\"toc4\"><\/a>What are the concerns with the fertility rates falling below the replacement levels?<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Demographic disadvantage:<\/strong>\u00a0Fertility rates, falling below the replacement level of TFR 2.1, leads to the problem of demographic disadvantage of an ageing population. <strong>For ex-<\/strong> <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">China&#8217;s demographic disadvantage due to falling fertility rate<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Increase in &#8216;non-developmental expenditure&#8217;:<\/strong>\u00a0Drastic fall in fertility rate will lead to increase in government&#8217;s non-developmental expenditure on pensions and subsidies, due to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">increase in aged population<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">shrinking of workforce<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Labour shortages endangering economic stability:<\/strong>\u00a0Substantial decrease in the working age population will India&#8217;s economic and social stability. <strong>For ex-<\/strong> <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Decline in Japan&#8217;s economic growth rates due to shrinking labour force<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Less &#8216;brain pool&#8217; for innovation:<\/strong>\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Young people are the &#8216;<strong>brain pool<\/strong>&#8216; for entrepreneurship<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">innovation<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">new technologies development<\/span>. With less young people in the population pyramid due to decrease in fertility rate, the potential \u2018brain pool\u2019 for innovation will be lesser.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Potential social imbalances:<\/strong>\u00a0The Declining rate of fertility can lead to social imbalances due to gendered preference of having a male child. This can lead to an <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">increase in the son-meta preference<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">skewed sex-ratios<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Concerns regarding the lower political representation:<\/strong>\u00a0Southern states of India have transitioned to lower fertility rates earlier. There are fears that they <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">may lose parliamentary seats after constituency delimitation<\/span>, while Northern states with <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">larger populations could gain more seats<\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"color: #000000; text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a id=\"toc5\"><\/a>What Should be the Way Forward?<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Reduce the obsession with pro-natalist policies:<\/strong>\u00a0Countries that have tried financial incentives or policies to increase birth rates have seen limited success. The <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">model of Scandinavian countries<\/span> of <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">providing strong family and childcare support<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">gender equality measures<\/span>, can be followed by India.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Addressing the Internal Migration: <\/strong>Internal migration from<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"> Northern to Southern states<\/span>, can help balance the working-age population in Southern states. States like US have benefitted from the pro-immigration policies, which has helped sustain economic growth and labour productivity.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tweaking of economic policy and agenda:<\/strong>\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Economic policies that stimulate growth and job creation, alongside social security and pension reforms<\/span>, will also be essential in mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rate.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Designing policies for ethical and effective migration: <\/strong>The policies for ethical and effective inter-state migration must be designed to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">offset the regional imbalances<\/span> due to falling rates of fertility in southern states of India.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Men assuming greater household responsibilities: <\/strong>Men taking up greater responsibilities of household and care work would help women in <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">better management of motherhood with their careers<\/span>. This would consequently lead to working women choosing child-rearing instead of adoption.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Formalization of caregiving economy:<\/strong>\u00a0According to a NITI Aayog report, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">healthcare offered at home can replace up to 65% of unnecessary hospital visits<\/span> and reduce hospital costs by 20%. Well-trained caregivers possessing empathetic outlook towards elderly need to be provided formal and better work place conditions.<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"> Recognition of\u00a0 \u201chome\u201d as a place for providing care<\/span> and as a <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">\u201cplace of work\u201d for caregivers<\/span> will be the first step towards elderly care.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Comprehensive policy on home based care:<\/strong>\u00a0The Southern states must draft a comprehensive policy for <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">streamlining of vocational training<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">nomenclature, roles, and career progression of the caregivers<\/span>. It must also streamline the registry of caregivers, ensure transparency and accountability and establish grievance redressal mechanisms.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Replication of Switzerland\u2019s &#8216;Time Bank&#8217; initiative:<\/strong>\u00a0Under this initiative, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">the younger generation start to save \u2018<strong>time<\/strong>\u2019 by taking care of senior citizens<\/span>. Later, they can use the saved \u2018<strong>time<\/strong>\u2019 when they get old, sick, or in need of someone to take care of them. This initiative can be used by the South Indian States.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; border-style: solid;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 100%;\">Read More- <a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/opinion\/columns\/mohan-bhagwats-three-child-plan-why-concern-about-indias-falling-fertility-rate-is-misplaced-9706979\/?ref=top_opinion\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Indian Express<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/news\/national\/andhra-pradesh\/draft-population-management-policy-to-incentivise-parents-having-third-child\/article70707327.ece\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Hindu<\/a><br \/>\nUPSC Syllabus- GS 1- Population and Associated Issues<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The falling fertility rate in India is dominating the demographic shifts debate in India. According to a Lancet study, the fertility rate in India may dip to 1.29 by 2050, which will be far lower than the replacement rate of 2.1. In Southern states in India, like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the Total Fertility Rate&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/fertility-rate-in-india-explained-pointwise\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Fertility Rate in India &#8211; Explained Pointwise<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10391,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[130],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-357296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-7-pm","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10391"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=357296"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357296\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=357296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=357296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=357296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}