{"id":357437,"date":"2026-03-07T20:12:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T14:42:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/?p=357437"},"modified":"2026-03-08T15:39:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T10:09:24","slug":"the-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/the-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around\/","title":{"rendered":"The chokepoint that cannot be routed around"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 3- <\/strong>Indian economy and Infrastructure<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The crisis around the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> reveals a deeper weakness in global trade systems. Earlier disruptions exposed <strong>supply chain fragility<\/strong> and encouraged redundancy in suppliers and logistics. However, the current situation shows that some constraints arise from <strong>geography and institutions<\/strong> rather than logistics. Strategic passages such as <strong>Hormuz cannot be easily bypassed<\/strong>, making them critical points of vulnerability for <strong>global energy flows<\/strong>. <strong>The chokepoint that cannot be routed around.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-357518\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around.png?resize=430%2C285&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"The chokepoint that cannot be routed around\" width=\"430\" height=\"285\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around.png?resize=300%2C199&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around.png?resize=1024%2C680&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around.png?resize=768%2C510&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 430px) 100vw, 430px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><strong>The Earlier Crisis of Supply Chain Disruption in the Suez Canal<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Blockage of a critical trade route:<\/strong> In <strong>March 2021<\/strong>, the <strong>MV Ever Given<\/strong>, a <strong>400-metre ship<\/strong>, ran aground in the <strong>205-metre-wide Suez Canal<\/strong> and blocked the route for six days, halting about <strong>$9.6 billion in daily trade<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong> Recognition of supply chain fragility:<\/strong> The disruption highlighted the risks of <strong>thin margins and fragile logistics networks<\/strong>, triggering a large debate on <strong>supply chain resilience<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Policy emphasis on redundancy:<\/strong> The key lesson was that <strong>global trade requires redundancy<\/strong>, including <strong>diversified suppliers, larger inventories, and stronger logistics capacity<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Economic nature of the crisis:<\/strong> The <strong>2020\u201322 supply chain crisis<\/strong> emerged from logistical limits at <strong>ports, semiconductor factories, and container terminals<\/strong>, where <strong>demand exceeded capacity<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market adjustment as the solution:<\/strong> <strong>Higher prices encouraged more ships, increased production, and rerouting of trade flows<\/strong>, helping markets stabilise within <strong>about 18 months<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><strong>The Present Crisis of Energy Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Strategic energy passage:<\/strong> The <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, about <strong>21 miles wide<\/strong>, bordered by <strong>Iran on the northern shore<\/strong>, functions as a crucial route for <strong>global oil and petroleum flows<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sharp fall in vessel movement:<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li>By <strong>March 3<\/strong>, Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking recorded only <strong>nine vessels<\/strong> navigating the strait compared with a <strong>February daily average of 135 ships<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>The number of vessels fell from <strong>91 on February 28<\/strong> to <strong>26 on March 1<\/strong>, showing a <strong>near-vertical collapse in movement<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li><strong>Insurance-triggered disruption:<\/strong> <strong>Seven members of the International Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs issued 72-hour cancellation notices<\/strong>, soon followed by <strong>all twelve members<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Commercial withdrawal of shipping:<\/strong> Once <strong>insurance cover disappeared<\/strong>, shipowners chose to <strong>wait rather than enter the strait<\/strong>, effectively halting traffic <strong>even without a physical blockade<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><strong>The Structural Difference Between Supply Chain Bottlenecks and Energy Chokepoints<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong> Insurance acting as the first chokepoint:<\/strong> The disruption occurred <strong>before any physical closure<\/strong>, as <strong>insurance withdrawal became the immediate barrier<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Geographical limitation of the passage:<\/strong> The <strong>Strait of Hormuz cannot be widened or duplicated<\/strong>, making it a <strong>fixed physical constraint<\/strong> unlike flexible supply chains.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Limited substitute routes:<\/strong> Existing pipelines from the Gulf can redirect only about <strong>4.2 million barrels per day<\/strong>, while the strait normally carries <strong>around 20 million barrels daily<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Absence of bypass for LNG exports:<\/strong> <strong>Qatar\u2019s LNG<\/strong>, accounting for <strong>19% of global supply<\/strong>, has <strong>no alternative route<\/strong>, reinforcing the strait\u2019s central importance.<\/li>\n<li><strong> Evidence from emergency adjustments:<\/strong> <strong>Saudi Arabia redirected oil to Yanbu<\/strong>, loading <strong>2.44 million barrels per day <\/strong>against a <strong>six-month average of under one million<\/strong>, showing both the <strong>workaround and its ceiling<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rapid cascading effects in energy systems:<\/strong> <strong>Iraq\u2019s Rumaila field cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day <\/strong>because <strong>storage filled and exports could not move<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><strong>The Economic Consequences of Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong> Impact on price discovery systems:<\/strong> <strong>S&amp;P Global\u2019s Platts excluded Dubai, Upper Zakum, Al-Shaheen, and Murban loadings from the price-discovery process<\/strong>, disrupting the benchmark system used for pricing <strong>Middle Eastern crude sold to Asian buyers<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Importance of the Dubai benchmark:<\/strong> The <strong>Dubai marker<\/strong> serves as the <strong>reference price for most Middle Eastern crude sold to Asian buyers<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rising price premiums in trading:<\/strong> By <strong>March 4<\/strong>, <strong>TotalEnergies bid $12 above the benchmark<\/strong>, compared with a <strong>premium of $1 in the previous week<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Projected oil price increases:<\/strong> <strong>Goldman Sachs scenarios estimate<\/strong> that a <strong>one-month full closure could add $15 to oil prices<\/strong>, while <strong>full pipeline use could limit the rise to $12<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market already pricing risk:<\/strong> By <strong>March 3<\/strong>, oil markets had already incorporated a <strong>$14 risk premium<\/strong>, close to the <strong>full-closure scenario<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong> Potential natural gas price surge:<\/strong> A <strong>two-month LNG disruption could push European benchmark gas prices (Dutch TTF) above \u20ac100 per megawatt hour<\/strong>, compared with <strong>\u20ac31.6 before the war<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Limited supply response from shale:<\/strong> The <strong>International Energy Agency estimates<\/strong> that <strong>US shale could add 400,000 barrels per day<\/strong>, far below the possible <strong>16 million barrel per day shortfall<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><strong>India\u2019s Strategic Exposure to the Hormuz Energy Chokepoint<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong> Dependence on the Hormuz route:<\/strong> Around <strong>four to five million barrels of India\u2019s daily hydrocarbon imports<\/strong> pass through the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Limits of supplier diversification:<\/strong> India has diversified oil suppliers to ensure availability and affordability. However, <strong>about 4\u20135 million barrels of its daily hydrocarbon imports still pass through the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, so the <strong>maritime chokepoint risk remains unchanged<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Institutional vulnerability in maritime insurance:<\/strong> India does not have its own <strong>Shipping Protection and Indemnity Clubs<\/strong>, which play a <strong>central role in maritime insurance<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Global concentration of insurance institutions:<\/strong> Most <strong>P&amp;I clubs are located in London and Europe<\/strong>, giving them <strong>significant influence over global shipping operations<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Delayed institutional response:<\/strong> The <strong>Finance Minister acknowledged the need for an Indian P&amp;I entity three years ago<\/strong>, but <strong>the institution has not yet been created<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Recent crises reveal a shift in the nature of global vulnerabilities. Earlier disruptions centred on <strong>supply chain nodes<\/strong> such as <strong>ports and factories<\/strong>, encouraging redundancy and diversification. The <strong>Hormuz crisis shows that strategic passages matter more<\/strong>. <strong>Geography, insurance systems, and pricing institutions<\/strong> shape global energy flows. Resilience must address <strong>critical maritime chokepoints<\/strong>, not only supply chain networks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Question for practice:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Examine how the Strait of Hormuz crisis reveals the limitations of supply chain resilience strategies developed after the Suez Canal disruption.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source<\/strong>: <strong>Businessline<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 3- Indian economy and Infrastructure Introduction The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz reveals a deeper weakness in global trade systems. Earlier disruptions exposed supply chain fragility and encouraged redundancy in suppliers and logistics. However, the current situation shows that some constraints arise from geography and institutions rather than logistics. Strategic&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/the-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The chokepoint that cannot be routed around<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10320,"featured_media":357518,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230],"tags":[12121,216,8184],"class_list":["post-357437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","tag-businessline","tag-gs-paper-3","tag-indian-economy","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-chokepoint-that-cannot-be-routed-around.png?fit=1280%2C850&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10320"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=357437"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357437\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/357518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=357437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=357437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=357437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}