{"id":371756,"date":"2026-09-14T17:38:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T12:08:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/?p=371756"},"modified":"2026-09-14T17:38:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T12:08:33","slug":"the-evidence-gap-in-dole-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/the-evidence-gap-in-dole-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"The Evidence Gap in Dole Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 2- <\/strong>Welfare schemes for vulnerable sections of the population by the Centre and States and the performance of these schemes<\/p>\n

Introduction<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Dole politics refers to recurring cash transfers, subsidies and free services<\/strong> used to provide immediate welfare support. In India\u2019s poor and informal economy, such support can help households facing unstable incomes. However, the growing use of these measures creates concerns about fiscal sustainability, targeting and their impact on public goods<\/strong>. The key gap is the lack of clear evidence on who benefits, what changes, and whether these schemes create lasting welfare gains<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Rise of Dole Politics in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n
    \n
  1. Election promises and implementation:<\/strong> Election promises often become difficult to fulfil because they require public money, administrative capacity, public acceptance and changes in existing priorities<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
  2. Complete policy cycle:<\/strong> A welfare promise requires agenda setting, consultation, policy formulation, resource mobilisation, implementation, monitoring, evaluation and correction<\/strong>, rather than only announcing a scheme.<\/li>\n
  3. Growing welfare commitments:<\/strong> Dole politics now includes monthly cash transfers, free electricity, free bus travel, subsidised food and utility subsidies<\/strong> across States.<\/li>\n
  4. Expansion of women\u2019<\/strong>s transfers:<\/strong> Unconditional cash transfers to women increased from two States in 2022-23 to 12 States in 2025-26<\/strong>, showing their growing role in welfare policy.<\/li>\n
  5. Growing fiscal scale:<\/strong> States were estimated to spend \u20b91.68 lakh crore<\/strong>, about 0.5% of GDP<\/strong>, on unconditional cash transfers to women in 2025-26.<\/li>\n
  6. Major State commitments:<\/strong> West Bengal budgeted \u20b936,000 crore<\/strong>, Tamil Nadu \u20b914,412 crore<\/strong>, and Assam \u20b95,000 crore<\/strong>for major women-focused transfer schemes.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Major Gains of Dole Politics in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n
      \n
    1. Significant income support:<\/strong> Transfers form 11\u201324% of monthly income for women daily-wage workers and 11\u201387% for self-employed women<\/strong>, showing their importance for vulnerable households.<\/li>\n
    2. Immediate financial relief:<\/strong> Cash assistance helps poor households manage unstable incomes and immediate financial needs<\/strong>, especially in an informal economy.<\/li>\n
    3. Support for vulnerable households:<\/strong> Transfers can soften financial pressures faced by households when regular income is uncertain or insufficient.<\/li>\n
    4. Support for women:<\/strong> Women-focused transfers provide direct financial assistance and can strengthen their control over household expenditure, making the design of such schemes socially important.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Concerns with Dole Politics in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n
        \n
      1. Permanent fiscal commitments:<\/strong> A transfer that begins as relief can become a long-term expenditure commitment <\/strong>when governments do not review its continuing cost and purpose.<\/li>\n
      2. Pressure on public priorities:<\/strong> Large recurring transfers can compete with spending on health centres, childcare, government schools and better employment opportunities<\/strong>, which provide more durable welfare.<\/li>\n
      3. Unclear targeting:<\/strong> Governments need to establish who should receive benefits, what baseline data supports eligibility, and whether schemes should be targeted or universal<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
      4. Weak outcome assessment:<\/strong> Governments often do not clearly show how transfers are expected to affect consumption, debt, nutrition, schooling, health spending, labour supply or women<\/strong>\u2019<\/strong>s bargaining power<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
      5. Lack of expenditure data:<\/strong> An ADB study prepared for the 16th Finance Commission<\/strong> found that India lacks a systematic dataset on government expenditure on cash-transfer schemes.<\/li>\n
      6. Risk of unemployment traps:<\/strong> Poorly designed unemployment benefits may reduce incentives to seek work and leave people dependent on support without escaping poverty.<\/li>\n
      7. Duplication and exclusion:<\/strong> Multiple schemes may provide several benefits to one family while others remain excluded, weakening the fairness and purpose of welfare delivery.<\/li>\n
      8. Weak policy consultation:<\/strong> Policies developed without involving beneficiaries and other stakeholders may be economically sustainable but fail to reflect user needs and gain wider acceptance.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Way Forward: Towards Evidence-Based Welfare<\/strong><\/h2>\n
          \n
        1. Pre-rollout welfare assessment:<\/strong> Every large recurring transfer should specify its objective, eligibility, expected coverage, five-year fiscal cost, alternatives, leakage and exclusion errors<\/strong> before implementation.<\/li>\n
        2. Wider stakeholder consultation:<\/strong> Governments should consult beneficiaries, non-beneficiaries and other relevant stakeholders<\/strong> and consider the social benefits and costs before finalising major welfare policies.<\/li>\n
        3. Beneficiary participation:<\/strong> People affected by a policy should have a role in its design so that programmes reflect actual needs and remain acceptable to beneficiaries.<\/li>\n
        4. Stronger delivery institutions:<\/strong> Governments should build delivery capacity and ensure transparent implementation, efficient service delivery, monitoring and evaluation<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
        5. Outcome-based evaluation:<\/strong> Household surveys should measure changes in consumption, debt, health spending, schooling, mobility, work incentives, household expenditure control and well-being<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
        6. Independent scrutiny:<\/strong> Anonymised microdata<\/strong> should be made available for independent research to assess whether welfare schemes achieve their stated objectives.<\/li>\n
        7. Better scheme coordination:<\/strong> Welfare programmes should be linked with other policies to prevent duplication and multiplicity of benefits<\/strong>, while ensuring that deserving households are not excluded.<\/li>\n
        8. Better political commitments:<\/strong> Political parties should prioritise transparent services, citizen participation, community audits, public mobility, disaster protection and individual rights<\/strong>, rather than relying mainly on dole promises.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Cash transfers can provide important support in a poor and informal economy. However, recurring welfare commitments need clear objectives, fiscal assessment and measurable outcomes<\/strong>. Better monitoring and independent evaluation can help governments identify what works and correct weak schemes. This can make welfare spending more effective, transparent and accountable.<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Question for practice:<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Evaluate the benefits and concerns of dole politics in India and suggest measures to make welfare schemes more evidence-based and accountable.<\/p>\n

          Source: <\/strong>The Hindu<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 2- Welfare schemes for vulnerable sections of the population by the Centre and States and the performance of these schemes Introduction Dole politics refers to recurring cash transfers, subsidies and free services used to provide immediate welfare support. In India\u2019s poor and informal economy, such support can help households facing unstable… Continue reading The Evidence Gap in Dole Politics<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10320,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230],"tags":[212,10498,713],"class_list":["post-371756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","tag-gs-paper-2","tag-the-hindu","tag-welfare-schemes","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/371756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10320"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=371756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/371756\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=371756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=371756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=371756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}